6 September 2015 - 22:03
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Masters of Maps : Inferno

Very few writers, analysts or casters rely on simple statistics to create narratives about CS:GO, either at the macro level of team performance, or the micro level of individual players.
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Very few writers, analysts or casters rely on simple statistics to create narratives about CS:GO, either at the macro level of team performance, or the micro level of individual players. Seemingly, one of the favorite things of CS:GO pundits is predicting map picks and bans, and often they'll tell us "Team X is good at Map X, but not Map Y," but really don't give much context as to why their statement is true. 

My Master of Maps series is my attempt to determine who’s the best on what maps at this point in time. I’m using Thorin’s Top 10 CSGO teams (although reshuffling and ranking them 10-1 as fits what the stats tell us) , and HLTV.org’s extensive database for the statistics. We’ll start with Inferno, one of the mainstay maps throughout Counterstrike history. Three data points will be examined, and hopefully help determine, who can be considered “Masters of the Map” for Inferno. Within those three data points, special focus will be given to  win-rate percentage by round and win-loss records, examining these metrics from the perspective of “Overall History,” “2015,” and “Last Three Months.”

With no singular league or season at the professional level in CS:GO, and within the context of the professional scene’s “ecosystem” of near-endless play across a variety of formats, sponsors and event organizers, CS:GO teams performance change like quicksilver,  which is why more emphasis is given to recent performance. When perusing the list used here, both statistics seem to reinforce each other in confirming whether a team is successful or not on a map. Numerous examples of this exist in the list as constructed, and hopefully make sense within the context of the rankings.

 

 10. mousesports:

Overall History: 

  • 45 total plays 
  • 20-0-25 record
  • 1189 rounds played
  • 587 rounds own 
  • 49.37% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 70.45%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 25.93%

2015:

  • 15 total plays
  • 6-0-9 record
  • 397 rounds played
  • 189 rounds won
  • 47.61% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 65.17%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 29.59%

Last three months: 

  • 4 total plays
  • 0-0-4 record
  • 101 rounds played
  • 37 rounds won
  • 36.63% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 54.17%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 20.75%

Mousesports likely provide us with the clearest example of a team that certainly isn’t going to earn Masters of Inferno. At all points in the team’s existence, it’s easy to firmly conclude Inferno is not a map the Germans should want to play at any time or under any circumstance. Their four losses this summer saw them only hit double digit round wins once, in a 13-16 loss to Envyus at IEM Gamescom in early August. Their other three losses this summer came against Ninjas in Pyjamas (NiP), Fnatic and Virtus.pro (VP)  and totaled only 24 round wins across those three losses.

Besides that, their win-rate percentage by round across all three levels of our analysis is the lowest by far. Between recent performance and abysmal win-rates across all metrics, mousesports is the easiest member of this group to deny the title of Masters of Inferno.

 

  1.  Cloud9:

Overall History:

  • 33 total plays
  • 15-0-18 record
  • 810 rounds played
  • 381 rounds won
  • 47& win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 68.38%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 25.37%

2015:

  • 24 total plays
  • 13-0-11 record
  • 579 rounds played
  • 289 rounds won 
  • 49.91% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 70.79%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 28.82%

Last Three Months: 

  • 9 total plays
  • 6-0-3 record
  • 216 rounds played
  • 112 rounds won
  • 51.85% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 74.55%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 28.3%

While the last three months appear to be favorable to C9, their six wins came against North American competition: Counterlogic Gaming (CLG), Nihilum, Luminosity (twice), Liquid, and Elevate. While a few of those teams, notably CLG, have made significant strides at the top level of play, most are still considered on the next rung down from the teams on this list, which makes it difficult to rank C9 any higher. The three losses came to top-tier European teams, all of whom are ranked higher on the list than C9.

 

  1. NA’VI:

Overall History: 

  • 94 total plays
  • 50-0-44 record
  • 2504 rounds played
  • 1288 rounds won
  • 51.44% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 75.58%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 27.26%

2015:

  • 44 total plays
  • 26-0-16 record
  • 1214 rounds played
  • 660 rounds won
  • 54.37% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 79.25%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 28.64%

Last Three Months: 

  • 19 total plays
  • 9-0-10 record
  • 530 rounds played
  • 271 rounds won
  • 51.13% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 76.25%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 26.77

Inferno has been a nightmare for Na’vi this summer. The Ukrainians have won once in their last eight plays on the map, the sole victory coming after ESL One: Cologne. Two of those losses came at ESL: One Cologne, one each to the eventual finalists, Envyus and Fnatic. Na’vi played the French close, 13-16,  but their encounter with the Swedes was a lopsided 2-16 affair.

Looking at their statistical performance in the remaining two categories, it appears that Na’vi are unlikely to be considered Masters of Inferno. At all levels of the “view” afforded us by HLTV’s meticulous statistics, Na’vi hover just barely above a 50% win-rate by round, a mark that is on the lower end of the distribution among their peers.

 

  1. Team Dignitas:

Overall History: 

  • 80 total plays
  • 51-0-29 record
  • 2046 rounds played
  • 1086 rounds won
  • 53.08% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 76.18%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 28.34%

2015:

  • 40 total plays
  • 20-0-20 record
  • 961 rounds played
  • 485 rounds won
  • 50.47% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 73.15%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 25.97%

Last Three Months: 

  • 8 total plays
  • 5-0-3 record
  • 186 rounds played
  • 97 rounds won
  • 52.15% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 76%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 24.42%

While their 5-0-3 record over the summer is adequate, a closer look shows that Dignitas’ five wins have come againstvolgare, E-Frag.net and Phenomenon, all lesser known teams. Their losses, however, have been to Envyus, NiP and Flipsid3, in which they recorded a *total* 17 round wins across three matches. Over the course of the year, that pattern has mostly held true as well, with Dignitas winning on Inferno against second-tier teams, and usually getting blown out of the water when facing top competition. It’s safe to say that Dignitas are NOT Masters of Inferno and deserving of the seventh spot in our ranking.

 

  1. Hellraisers:

Overall History:

  • 87 total plays
  • 47-1-39 record
  • 2297 rounds played
  • 1178 rounds won
  • 51.28% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 75.15%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 26.12%

2015: 

  • 31 total plays
  • 15-0-16 record
  • 821 rounds played
  • 406 rounds won
  • 49.45% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 74.56%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 25.48%

Last Three Months: 

  • 12 total plays
  • 7-0-5 record
  • 342 rounds played
  • 176 rounds won
  • 51.46% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 73.68%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 29.24%

Despite an improvement on Inferno over the Summer, Hellraisers are out of the conversation for Masters of Inferno. They won the map three times in June, besting Titan, Na’Vi and Envyus, but also dropped the map to the likes of GPlay, LGB and SK over the last 90 days. While they do have better than 50 percent marks in both record and win-rate percentage this summer, those previously mentioned losses hurt the Ukrainians in this ranking, making them a middle-of-the-pack team and sixth, a correct placing.

 

  1. NiP:

Overall: 

  • 118 total plays
  • 67-0-51 record
  • 2959 rounds payed
  • 1585 rounds won
  • 53.57% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 76.75%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 28.49%

2015: 

  • 41 total plays
  • 25-0-16 record
  • 1014 rounds played
  • 549 rounds won
  • 54.14% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 77.99%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 27.41%

Last Three Months: 

  • 9 total plays
  • 6-0-3 record
  • 200 rounds played
  • 109 rounds won
  • 54.5% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 76.19%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 30.53%

While their recent form suggests NiP are contenders for Masters of Inferno, it’s hard to give them the designation considering the losses they’ve taken on the map over the course of the summer and the year. Looking back, a majority of NiP’s losses on Inferno have come to other Top 10 teams, such as Envyus, VP and Fnatic. During the month of March, the Ninjas lost 4 out of 5 to Envyus, including a 16-1 romp at the SLTV Starseries XII Final. Fnatic also put a 16-4 stomping on the Ninjas at the beginning of the summer as part of the ESL ESEA Pro League Season 1 competition. 

Most recently, NiP wasn’t able to put up much of a fight on Inferno at ESL One: Cologne, falling 5-16 to VP. While their record seems to speak to some mastery, these losses on Inferno to other Top 10 teams over the course of the year, means they won’t be named Masters of Inferno for now and dead center on the list at fifth seems an appropriate ranking.

 

  1. Virtus.pro:

Overall History: 

  • 98 total plays
  • 63-2-28 record
  • 2441 rounds played
  • 1305 rounds won
  • 53.46% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 77%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 38%

2015: 

  • 38 total plays
  • 22-0-16 record
  • 962 rounds played 
  • 501 rounds won
  • 52.08% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 76.7%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 27.04%

Last Three Months: 

  • 10 total plays
  • 6-0-4 record
  • 258 rounds played
  • 146 rounds won
  • 56.59% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 78.1%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 32.23%

VP haven’t typically favored Inferno, given the small data sets at each of our “levels”. Heading into Cologne, however, the Poles had won four straight maps on Inferno, including a grand finals win over Cloud9 at the CEVO Season 7 LAN Finals. VP and their fans will likely always remember 2015’s ESL One: Cologne for the highs and lows that Swedish teams and Inferno provided them for the weekend. The Polish squad’s 16-5 win over Ninjas in Pyjamas providing one of the highs, and the aforementioned semi-final loss to Fnatic, the ultimate low.

The loss to Fnatic seems to have unnerved VP in the few weeks since, though. The team has only won Inferno once in four tries. Even though they have some of the more impressive statistics across all our levels of analysis, VP is also unlikely to earn the “Masters of Inferno” designation at this time. While the wins over C9 and NiP count for much, the losses to Fnatic and in their post-Cologne play keep VP from cracking the Top 3 and instead find them a home at Number 4.

 

  1. TSM:

Overall History & 2015:

  • 46 total plays
  • 33-0-13 record
  • 1194 rounds played
  • 681 rounds won
  • 57.04% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 80.35%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 30.47%

Last Three Months: 

  • 14 total plays
  • 10-0-4 record
  • 376 rounds played
  • 204 rounds won
  • 54.26% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 79.29%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 26.4%

TSM’s performance on Inferno seems to be much like their performance in the game overall: capable of being world-beaters one day, and losing to a significantly lesser side the next. TSM could have made a strong case for Masters of Inferno based on their summer performance up until the last two weeks. While this summer has seen them post a 2-1 record against Fnatic on Inferno, which certainly helps make their case, the last 90 days also saw them lose to Keyd Stars, and post a 1-2 record against Envyus. The most crucial loss was their second to Envyus, coming in the semifinals of ESL One Cologne and booting them out of the tournament, insuring them the third spot on the list.

 

  1. Envyus:

Overall History & 2015: 

  • 52 total plays
  • 33-0-19 record
  • 1431 rounds played
  • 792 rounds won
  • 55.35% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 77.97%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 29.22%

Last Three Months: 

  • 21 total plays
  • 14-0-7 record
  • 585 rounds played
  • 335 rounds won
  • 57.26% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 79.4%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 27.6%

Based upon their most recent performance, Envyus are the second best team on Inferno right now. Some of the best supporting evidence for their candidacy is their unbeaten record on the map since the roster switch in late July. They’re a perfect 8-0 since kennyS and apEX joined, including three wins at ESL One, including the aforementioned semi-final against TSM and a win on Sept. 2 over VP.  In short, that’s two wins, including one at a major, over our third and fourth-best teams on the list, lending credence to their taking the second spot.




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(photo courtesy of HLTV.org)

 

  1. FNATIC:

Overall History: 

  • 128 total plays
  • 90-3-35 record
  • 3439 rounds played
  • 1940 rounds won
  • 56.41% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 79.9%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 31.03%

2015: 

  • 43 total plays
  • 29-0-14 record
  • 1156 rounds played
  • 649 rounds won
  • 56.14% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 80.13%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 28.97%

Last Three Months:

  • 12 total plays
  • 10-0-2 record
  • 297 rounds played
  • 180 rounds won
  • 60.61% win-rate by round
  • Round Win % When Scoring First Frag: 83.65%
  • Round Win % When Conceding First Frag: 34.06%

Inferno played an integral role in Fnatic’s second consecutive major win at ESL One: Cologne last month, with the Swedes making an impressive late-round comeback against Virtus.pro (VP) to secure their spot in the final. Down 8-13, Fnatic called a timeout and came back roaring. While VP was able to secure a round AFTER the timeout, they proved unable to close it out against the eventual champions. Fnatic’s 83.65% round win-rate when scoring the first frag came into play in a big way after the time out,  with Fnatic scoring that first frag eight times, helping them overcome a five-round deficit with just nine rounds to go.

Fnatic have played Inferno at a blistering pace over the course of the summer, compiling  a 10-0-2 record and 60.61% win-rate by round. And  after a comeback on the biggest stage, in which there was zero room for error against the fourth best team on our list, it’s clear that Fnatic are Masters of Inferno right now.

Up Next : We’ll see what our ranking system tells us about Dust 2. Will Fnatic rule the roost in our second installment? Can TSM claim a top spot? How about Envyus. Let’s find out!

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