Is it possible for a 14-0 Fnatic to still miss Worlds?

Basic Info

Remember the championship points system implemented before the start of this season? Here is where it really starts to come into play for teams. For those who aren’t aware, championship points are awarded to the six teams that reach the LCS playoffs for spring and summer. The 3 spots for worlds are decided by:

1. The winner of the summer playoffs
2. The team with the most accumulative points from summer and spring
3. A Gauntlet between the remaining teams with the second, third, forth, fifth most points

In playoffs, the first seed team faces off against the winner of the fourth and fifth in semis and the second seed faces the winner of the third and sixth seeds in the other semis half. Losers of the semis games play for third.

Current Championship Points for EU

Fnatic -90

Unicorns of Love- 70

H2k Gaming- 50

SK Gaming- 30

Gambit Gaming- 10

Copenhagen Wolves- 10

Summer playoffs points awards:

First- Auto Worlds

Second- 90

Third- 70

Forth- 40

Fifth and sixth- 20

Now for Fnatic.

If Fnatic 2-0 their week this week against H2k and Origen, they will be 14-0 meaning the lowest possible score for them is 14-4.

Provided Origen and H2k win their other games this week against Giants and Roccat respectively, they will be 10-4 meaning the highest possible score they could both get is 14-4. However because they face each other in the last week, only one of them could possibly go 14-4 with the other being only able to finish with a highest score of 13-5.

Fnatic would also own the series against both H2k and Origen so I doubt a tiebreak would even happen in that scenario.

This means that regardless of their last four games, if Fnatic 2-0 this week to go 14-0, they will automatically go into playoffs as the first seed.

At this point you’re thinking they’re unstoppable and a sure seed for worlds right? Wrong

Here’s the far-fetched possibility for Fnatic to not make worlds after securing first seed this split.

1. Imagining the Unicorns finish seventh and don’t make playoffs (All on H2k)

Fnatic would need to lose their first playoffs game to the winner of the fourth and fifth seed match, get shuffled into the third place game and then lose that as well, the same as what happened to SK Gaming in spring. At the same time, H2k would need to make it to playoff finals as or against the fourth or fifth seed and lose it. This would qualify the playoff winner immediately, then H2k as the team with the second most championship points as they would finish on 140 (50+90) which is 10 higher than Fnatic in this scenario with 130 (90+40).

On top of all this, Fnatic would then need to lose the gauntlet to whatever team climbs up.

In short, Fnatic would need to lose every single match possible from the semis onward AND H2k would need to finish second in playoffs. H2k in first would mean no one else could stop Fnatic qualifying and any less than second would qualify Fnatic still with the most accumulative points.

2. Unicorns make playoffs

With Unicorns in the playoffs, the scenario remains the same if H2k get second and Fnatic would still need to finish fourth with no wins whatsoever. Unicorns however would need to finish second and on 160 points (70+90), beat Fnatic in the third place match and end on 140 (70+70), or be the magical forth/fifth seed in the above scenario that auto qualifies as first seed while H2k finish second.

Bare in mind from the moment Fnatic touch the playoff semi-finals they require ONE set victory to go to worlds, be it in the semis, the third place match or the gauntlet.

TLDR: If Fnatic go 14-0 they’d need to lose every single playoff game and the gauntlet to not make worlds, while at the same time H2k/Unicorns finish second or the Unicorns finish third in playoffs.

Quite the far-fetched theory if you ask me.