What are the odds? - Worlds 2015
Who are the favorites?
After countless top 10's,Pick Em's,analysis and predictions..we pretty much know who he favorites are.The top dogs.SK,EDG and LGD seem at least a tier above any other team.And in each group two teams seem stronger than the other two.We have KOO Tigers undisputed number one seed with CLG heavy favorites for second.Invictus Gaming and Fnatic fighting out over seeding while ahq and Cloud 9 fighting to avoid 4th.EDG and SKT pretty much locked in and ready to go while in Group D,LGD and KT sit comfortably at the top.
But what are the odds for upsets to happen?And is it crazy to believe in them?
1.CLG doesn't make it out of Group A
I think everyone agrees that it is almost a given that the KOO Tigers will make it out of the groups.They have the best roster,they come from a highly competitive scene even after the ''Great Korean Exodus'' and they actually showed up better in actual games.No reason to believe they won't go 6-0 in this group.At worst,I think they will drop a game.
Now...the real questionmark is CLG.Before Xmithie got his ticket to worlds,it seemed like everything was in the air.HuHi,a midlaner gone jungler?It was not looking good..and even paiN was growing ever more confident in their chances.Now with Xmithie back,CLG becomes again the favorite to take that second spot.But is it so unlikely to see CLG go out 3rd,or even 4th?I don't think so.
Clearly they are the favorites for second but the Flash Wolves are lurking in the shadows.Recently Yoe Flash Wolves was praised by both analysts and scrim partners,calling them ''underrated''.I think the West finaly understood that Taiwanese teams are not to be trifled with.
paiN gaming...last year,Kabum detonated a bomb when they took down Allaince in what is the greatest upset in competitive LoL.This year,Brazil is represnted by probably the best ever wildcard team to play at Worlds.With a good midlaner in Kami,veteran ADC brTT and Mylon that has received much praise and can be a key member especially in a top lane driven meta.paiN seems to be a complete team.It is not that outrageous to think that they may take down the Yoe Flash Wolves and CLG and steal that second spot.
For me this group is all about CLG showing up or not showing up.KOO pretty much stands alone on that first seed and then we have CLG who must watch their backs against the Flash Wolves and paiN gaming.
CLG not making it out of the groups is one of the surprises that this year's Worlds might bring.
2.FNC doesn't make it out of Group B
We are all fed up with Fnatic's hype.They won 2 splits in a row,and now the times when Febiven solo killed Faker not once,but twice became legendary.I would argue that this is the best western team after the Season 2 giants Moscow 5 and CLG.EU.The team is complete with a lot of versability and not many holes in their armor.But they are in a group with iG..a team that I see as a dark horse to win the tournament,ahq,the number one seed from the most underestimated region of them all,and Cloud9,a team that built a huge momentum after reverse sweeping the Gauntlet.
ahq has an ace up their sleeves in the form of Ziv.If in the past,Westdoor was the face of ahq with his Fizz,Zed and splitpush tactics,this year they may have in their team one of the best toplaners in the World.Ziv thrives in this meta and can carry ahq and upset Fnatic.
The North American representatives of this group are Cloud 9.Their miracle run in the Gauntlet was incredible but it doesn't make them a good team on the world stage.They didn't show the same level of play as Fnatic,iG or even ahq,and their jungler is not a jungler.With Balls underperforming and LemonNation being outclassed mechanically by other supports,they don't have much hope going into this group.But they can go out with a bang.Cloud 9 will be the deciding factor in this group.If they manage to shot call themselves a win or two,they might decide the seeding,or even who qualifies into the quarters.
iG is a team with a lot of potential.I use that word carefully because we all know the power that it has.If they show up,if they figure out the patch and if KaKaO realises that he is the best jungler in this group..iG can take this easy and even become a contender for Worlds.But in that scenario we have a lot of ''if' , ''but'' and ''maybe''.Whatever the case,I think it's pretty certain that they will survive this group.
3.OG gets out of group D
Stay with me on this one...Origen on paper looks good.They have veterans all across the board and Niels,the hungry new rising star.They will most likely not get smashed during laning phase but they have huge holes in their team's strategy.They are facing two Asian giants,but those giants are not as consistent as other Asian teams.I think this aspect will play a huge part into this group.KT and LGD at their peak are uncontested favorites to go out..but they have shown throughout this year that consistency is not one of their strong points.Both losing to low ranked Korean and Chinese teams,throwing leads and getting dismantled by other teams from their region.OG can take advantage of that and sneak past one of the two.
The team that is certain to die in the ''Group of Death'' is TSM.They didn't show anything promising during their split and play-off run where they got dismantled by CLG and even in their wins against GV and TL..they didn't seem strong.Their Top,Bot and Jungle are getting outclassed by any other team in this group and as always,Bjerg is the shining light of the team.Team Solo Mid's objective at this Worlds should be crushing Origen's chances.As I see it,OG has a pretty good chance of going through,but TSM can take them down,and if they do,I don't see Origen recovering from that.