Roster Moves Analyzed: Why Freeze?

The news is finally out. In one of the most expected and predicted roster moves in LCS history Renegades has finally confirmed they are bringing on Freeze as their ADC for the 2016 Spring Split. This decision has been long in the making. The ADC that piloted them throughout the challenger series and quite simply carried them through their promotion matches, Maplestreet, stepped down on November 7th. It didn’t take long for the rumors about RNG Freeze to begin flying.

Freeze has been a hyped ADC for the last several splits. It was speculated he might leave Copenhagen Wolves after the 2015 Spring Split however he stuck around for the Summer Split and was a part of the Copenhagen Wolves’ disappointing 4-14 season and subsequent auto-relegation. Although CW went into the Summer Split with high expectations after an 8-10 record in the 2015 Spring Split and a subsequent 6th place finish they could never quite find their groove. Team chemistry issues plagued their roster as they saw starting top laner, Youngbuck, support, Unlimited, and jungler, Airwaks, step down from the team in July. Their replacements, Lenny and je suis kaas, never quite showcased the ability to succeed in the LCS.

Throughout all the turmoil one thing remained constant: Freeze. Long regarded as the true carry for CW he showcased great mechanical skill, so much so that his signature champion Draven has become an almost required ban against him. Although he wasn’t capable of carrying CW out of their auto-relegation spot it’s hard to place any blame on Freeze. His statistics are still incredible. 13 different players started a game as an ADC in the 2015 EU Summer Split. Two of those, Moopz and PePiiNero, only played 2 and 1 games respectively, and as such for the purpose of this analysis will not be included.

I know what you’re thinking: “I thought you said his statistics were incredible! These look mediocre to me. He finished 5th or worse in 8 of the 11 categories you listed.”

You’d be correct in your observation, however everything is relative. Consider the statistics he did well in:

• CS Differential@10 Minutes
• Kill Participation
• Percentage of Team’s Damage

All three of those statistics are primarily individual statistics. CS Differential is primarily based off a laner’s ability to deny the opponent farm. The ideology that supports play an important role in this process for ADCs actually strengthens Freeze’s case as an elite ADC because he played with two different supports during the split, neither of which were even average in the league.

A total of 12 players started a game at support during the 2015 EU Summer Split.

Keep in mind that Unlimited played 10 games and je suis kaas 8 which partially accounts for lost assist and death totals. On a per game average of those statistics however they both are two of the worst supports in EU last split. Their Kill Participation percentages showcase just how poor they each were. Neither could show up to their team’s fights. They contributed hugely to their opponents establishing a gold lead, however, as they both account for a significant portion of their team’s deaths.

These were the supports Freeze was playing with last split. Neither should strike you as a superstar. Their struggles help give Freeze more leeway in how his statistics look the eye test while revealing the true reasoning behind some of his statistical troubles. He was playing for a team that had the least overall kills (150), lowest K/D (.60), second highest gold difference at 15 minutes (-1,167), second lowest first tower rate (29%), and third lowest first dragon rate (39%). Overall, the Copenhagen Wolves were one of the worst performing teams the LCS has ever seen. Throughout this Freeze still managed to put in topshelf performances, especially when one considers how stacked the ADC pool was for the Summer Split.

So Renegades?

The real question that needs to be asked now is whether or not Freeze is finally in a position to succeed on Renegades, or whether or not, statistically, Maplestreet would be the better fit for their team. Let’s first compare Maplestreet and Freeze. For the purpose of this comparison it is important to note that there were only 9 players who started a game as an ADC in the 2015 NA CS Summer Regular Season. Of those 9 players 4 played 4 games or less: Intense, Jebus, Steelback, and themassacre8. Maplestreet played 7 games during the regular season, while the others all played either 10 or 11 games.

Notice how Maplestreet had the second most assists while playing far few games than other ADCs? How about how he did the least amount of damage for his team when compared to all other ADCs? He played a huge supporting role for Renegades. He wasn’t acting as a carry – he was being a utility damage dealer. That’s exactly what Freeze isn’t. Is that bad though? During the CS Regular Season Renegades were average or above average in most important team statistics. They had the second highest K/D ratio behind only Coast. They had the second highest gold differential at 15 minutes, once again behind only Coast. They got the first tower of the game 55% of the time and the first dragon 64%, both in the top three for the Challenger Series. On balance, Renegades was a fine team.

So why add Freeze?

Those statistics come from the 2015 Spring Split when Maplestreet played 19 games for Team8. To put it in perspective there were only 10 ADCs that I felt had enough games to qualify as an ADC that split. Maplestreet was the worst ADC in three of the nine categories I listed and in the worst 3 in all but one. Against LCS quality competition his normally supportive style didn’t work. The only argument against this statistical analysis is that Team8 was a much different team then Renegades are, but is that really true? Both teams rely on carry top laners, RF Legendary for Renegades and CaliTrolz for Team8. Both look to the midlane for a primary amount of their damage,

Freeze has a proven track record against LCS competition with one of the worst teams in LCS history. If Renegades can be only marginally better than the Copenhagen Wolves were last split then Freeze is a significant upgrade over Maplestreet who has shown in his last two stints in the LCS that he isn’t cut out for that level of competition.