LoL Worlds 2023 play-in stage: 3 predictions and previews

The 2023 League of Legends World Championship is here, but before the big stars of the major regions duke it out in the tournament’s main event, the preliminary play-in stage will decide which teams get the final berths in the newly formed Worlds Swiss stage.

This year, the Worlds play-in stage looks different than it has in years past, with the format receiving an update, just as the main event of the tournament did. The play-in teams have been drawn into two separate double-elimination brackets (instead of the usual pools), and it will take victories across three series (not best-of-ones) to secure a place in the main event. 

To make the stakes even higher, only two teams will advance out of the play-in stage (instead of the usual four), meaning every match has immense weight attached to it right from the jump. 

Here are three predictions we’re confident to have under our belts ahead of the Worlds 2023 play-in stage.  

Prediction #1: WQS winner cruises to a Swiss Stage appearance

Unlike years past, there’s only going to be one major region team in the Worlds play-in stage, and they’re going to come out of the Worlds Qualifying Series. This newly minted grudge match between the fourth-place teams out of Europe and North America will officially kick off Worlds on Oct. 9, and the day after, the winner will be placed into the play-in stage bracket. 

Whoever wins the Worlds Qualifying Series—be it Team BDS or Golden Guardians—we expect them to run buckwild through the play-in stage, as both of those teams are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the competition in the tournament’s initial phase. Even on their worst days, the fourth-best team from a major region should be favored over any squad from a minor region on paper. 

For what it’s worth, though, we expect Golden Guardians to win the WQS and eventually join fellow LCS leaguemates Cloud9, NRG, and Team Liquid in the Worlds Swiss stage. 

Prediction #2: LOUD finally climb the mountain

All of the pieces are in place for LOUD to finally pull the trigger and get past the play-in stage at Worlds. The team is very quietly one of the hottest in pro LoL, as they ran the table in the CBLOL on the heels of 22-4 stretch to close out the domestic schedule. The team is coming back to Worlds with four-fifths of the roster that nearly made it out last year, too. 

The bracket system is a bit of a double-edged sword for LOUD, who undoubtedly have an easier road to the Swiss stage considering all it’s going to take is three series wins to get there. Last season, the gauntlet featured a wide array of games against teams from three different major regions, but this year, it’s possible LOUD can get to the Worlds main event and completely dodge major region squads—which have been their Achilles’ heel in two straight international tournaments—along the way. Unfortunately, the bracket works against them, too, as they’ve been drawn into a pool that will see them face off against Vietnam’s best team, GAM Esports, and likely PSG Talon, who beat them 2-0 back at MSI. 

Still, we’re predicting that the third time will be the charm for a LOUD team that’s represented Brazil at three consecutive events. Between a relatively favorable format shake-up and enough experience to warrant confidence, there’s no reason LOUD shouldn’t have as good a chance as any team to make it through to the final field of 16. 

Prediction #3: Asia’s minor region squads take another step back

Two years ago, minor region teams were on the come-up, and particularly, the worlds’ best minor region teams were coming out of secondary Asian leagues like the LJL and PCS. After PSG Talon reached the top four at MSI 2021, DetonatioN FocusMe followed up the case for Asia’s minor leagues with an unprecedented Worlds group stage appearance. 

We’re far removed from that peak, though, and those regions (who are still represented by the same teams, by the way) are nowhere close to reaching those heights. At MSI earlier this year, the expanded field allowed for the potential for more minor region teams to rise up and make late-tournament appearances, but it wasn’t meant to be. At that tournament, PSG got gatekept by LEC and LCS teams, while DFM didn’t even win a game. The top eight at MSI was filled completely with major region teams (two from each of the top leagues) and we expect a similar result this time around. 

The Worlds play-in format demands that at least one minor region team will be present in the Swiss stage, and no matter who it is, we’re more inclined to predict they’ll take another step back rather than reach the heights they did at the start of the decade. 

Worlds officially begins with the Worlds Qualifying Series on Oct. 9, and the play-in stage begins one day later on Oct. 10.