Every possible relevant playoff scenario for each team in 2020 LCS Summer Split

Buckle up. Week nine could get spicy.

Photo via Riot Games

One more week of regular season action remains for the 10 League of Legends teams in the LCS. The Spring Split held no bearing on Worlds placement, so it all comes down to the Summer Split to determine the region’s three international representatives.

Given the recent shakeups at the top of the standings and the fact that a whopping eight teams make it into the playoffs this split, every squad has something to play for. Five different teams are mathematically in contention for the top two seeds, and with only two games separating the four squads that haven’t clinched a playoff spot, even bottom-of-the-table scraps become something to watch.

Image via Riot Games

To summarize the above double-elimination bracket, the top two seeds get a bye, with the No. 1 seed getting to pick their first opponent. The teams between third and sixth start “normally,” with third-vs-sixth and fourth-vs-fifth. The seventh and eighth-ranked teams essentially start with a loss, making it a single-elimination tournament for them. Every match will be a best-of-five.

Every team has something to play for this weekend, so we detailed all of their possible finishes and the scenarios that would have to come true to make each finish happen, including tiebreakers. The points under each team’s ceiling and floor must happen for that team to finish there.

Here are the potential playoff scenarios for each team in the 2020 LCS Summer Split.

1) Team Liquid (13-3)

  • Ceiling: No. 1 seed
    • TL beat IMT or TSM
  • Floor: No. 3 seed
    • TL lose to IMT and TSM
    • C9 beat DIG and CLG
    • TSM beat GG and TL
    • Resulting three-way tiebreaker:
      • If all three teams (C9, TL, TSM) were to end the season at 13-5, they would all have an aggregate record of 2-2 against one another, so tiebreaker seeding would be on Strength of Victory Score (see pages 16-17), which can’t be determined until all matches are played. If outside results are won by the favorite, then TL and C9 would also tie there, so their tiebreaker seed would be determined by Total Game Victory Time. And since TL beat C9 in 29:18, while C9 beat TL in 30:21, TL would take the No. 1 seed, C9 would be No. 2, and TSM would be No. 3 in this tiebreaker. If the three conditions above are met and the other games wrap up in a fashion where TL and C9 end with the same Strength of Victory score, then given the subsequent Total Game Victory Time tiebreaker going the way of TL, there’s actually no way for TL to get the No. 3 seed. But if there’s any combination of “upsets” (DIG over 100T, EG over GG, CLG over FLY, 100T over EG, IMT over FLY) that “untie” TL and C9, the Strength of Victory Score tiebreaker could bump TL into the two-vs-three section of the three-way tiebreaker, most likely against TSM, the loser of which would get the No. 3 seed.

Below is the three-way tiebreaker scenario for teams with an equal record against one another. This is what would kick in if TL, C9, and TSM all end up 13-3.

Screengrab via Riot Games

T-2) Cloud9 (11-5)

  • Ceiling: No. 1 seed
    • C9 beat DIG and CLG
    • TL lose to IMT and TSM
    • TSM beat GG and TL
    • C9 win resulting three-way tiebreaker with TL and TSM (see above)
  • Floor: No. 5 seed
    • C9 lose to DIG and CLG
    • FLY beat CLG and IMT
    • GG beat TSM and EG
    • C9 lose resulting tiebreaker to GG (1-1 head-to-head)
  • No. 2 seed:
    • C9 beat DIG and CLG
    • TSM lose to GG or TL
    • *If C9 and TSM both go 2-0 or 1-1 (assuming at least one TL win), C9 would have to win a tiebreaker vs. TSM for the No. 2 seed.

T-2) TSM (11-5)

  • Ceiling: No. 1 seed
    • C9 beat DIG and CLG
    • TL lose to IMT and TSM
    • TSM beat GG and TL
    • TSM win resulting three-way tiebreaker with TL and C9 (see above)
  • Floor: No. 5 seed
    • TSM lose to both GG and TL
    • GG beat TSM and EG
    • FLY beat CLG and IMT
    • TSM lose resulting tiebreaker to GG (1-1 head-to-head)
  • No. 2 seed:
    • TSM beat GG and TL
    • C9 lose to DIG or CLG
    • TL beat IMT
    • OR
    • If TSM and C9 both go 2-0 or 1-1 (assuming at least one TL win), TSM would have to win a tiebreaker vs. C9 for the No. 2 seed (1-1 head-to-head).

4) FlyQuest (10-6)

  • Ceiling: No. 2 seed
    • FLY beat CLG and IMT
    • C9 lose to DIG and CLG
    • TSM lose to TL or EG (FLY hold head-to-head tiebreaker over TSM)
  • Floor: No. 5 seed
    • FLY lose to CLG and IMT
    • GG beat TSM or EG
    • FLY lose resulting tiebreaker to GG (1-1 head-to-head)
  • No. 4 seed:
    • FLY beat CLG and IMT
    • TSM beat TL and GG
    • C9 beat DIG or CLG
    • OR
    • FLY go 1-1 against CLG/IMT
    • GG lose to TSM or EG
    • OR
    • FLY go 1-1 against CLG/IMT
    • GG beat TSM and EG
    • FLY win resulting tiebreaker against GG

5) Golden Guardians (9-7)

  • Ceiling: No. 2 seed
    • GG beat TSM and EG
    • C9 lose to DIG and CLG
    • TSM lose to TL
    • GG win resulting three-way tiebreaker with C9 and TSM (each team combined 2-2 against other two, see above)
  • Floor: No. 6 seed
    • GG lose to TSM and EG
    • EG beat 100T
    • GG lose resulting tiebreaker to EG (1-1 head-to-head)
    • OR
    • GG beat TSM
    • FLY lose to CLG and IMT
    • EG beat GG and 100T
    • GG lose resulting three-way tiebreaker to EG (FLY combined 3-1, GG 2-2, EG 1-3 head-to-head against other two)

6) Evil Geniuses (7-9)

  • Ceiling: No. 5 seed
    • EG beat GG and 100T
    • GG lose to TSM
    • EG win resulting tiebreaker against GG (1-1 head-to-head)
  • Floor: No. 8 seed
    • EG lose to GG and 100T
    • CLG beat C9 and FLY
    • EG lose resulting tiebreaker to CLG, or, if 100T lose to DIG, resulting three-way tiebreaker to 100T and CLG (each team combined 2-2 against other two, see above)
  • No. 6 seed:
    • EG beat 100T
    • OR
    • EG beat GG
    • 100T beat EG and DIG
    • EG win resulting tiebreaker against 100T (1-1 head-to-head)
    • OR
    • EG lose to 100T and GG
    • 100T lose to DIG
    • CLG beat C9 and FLY
    • EG win resulting three-way tiebreaker with 100T and CLG (see above)

7) 100 Thieves (6-10)

  • Ceiling: No. 6 seed
    • 100T beat DIG and EG
    • EG lose to GG
    • OR
    • 100T beat EG, lose to DIG
    • EG lose to GG
    • 100T win resulting tiebreaker against EG (1-1 head-to-head)
  • Playoff spot:
    • 100T beat DIG or EG
    • OR
    • DIG lose to 100T or C9
    • IMT lose to FLY or TL

8) CLG (5-11)

  • Ceiling: No. 6 seed
    • CLG beat C9 and FLY
    • EG lose to 100T and GG
    • 100T lose to DIG
    • CLG win resulting three-way tiebreaker with EG and 100T (each team combined 2-2 against other two, see above)
  • Playoff spot:
    • CLG beat C9 and FLY
    • OR
    • CLG go 1-1 against C9/FLY
    • DIG lose to 100T or C9
    • IMT lose to FLY or TL
    • OR
    • *If CLG go 1-1 and DIG and/or IMT go 2-0, then CLG would have to win a tiebreaker with DIG and/or IMT.
    • OR
    • CLG lose to C9 and FLY
    • DIG lose to 100T and C9
    • IMT lose to FLY and TL

T-9) Dignitas (4-12)

  • Ceiling: No. 7 seed
    • DIG beat 100T and C9
    • 100T lose to EG
    • CLG lose to C9 and/or FLY
    • DIG win resulting two-, three-, or four-way tiebreaker with 100T and/or CLG and/or IMT (if IMT go 2-0)
  • Playoff spot:
    • DIG beat 100T and C9
    • CLG lose to C9 and/or FLY
    • 100T lose to EG
    • DIG win resulting two-, three-, or four-way tiebreaker with 100T and/or CLG and/or IMT
    • OR
    • DIG go 1-1 against 100T/C9
    • CLG lose to C9 and FLY
    • DIG win resulting two- or three-way tiebreaker with CLG and/or IMT

T-9) Immortals (4-12)

  • Ceiling: No. 7 seed
    • IMT beat FLY and TL
    • CLG go 1-1 against C9/FLY
    • 100T lose to DIG and EG
    • IMT win resulting three- or four-way tiebreaker with 100T, CLG, and/or DIG
      • *If only 100T and IMT end up with six wins at the end of the split (CLG 0-2, DIG 1-1/0-2), then 100T would get the No. 7 seed by virtue of a 2-0 head-to-head record against IMT. The only way IMT get the No. 7 seed is in a three- or four-way tiebreaker, not a two-way tiebreaker (against 100T).
  • Playoff spot:
    • IMT beat FLY and TL
    • 100T lose to DIG and EG
    • CLG lose to C9 or FLY (if CLG 2-0 and DIG lose to C9, then 100T would clinch the No. 8 seed by virtue of a 2-0 head-to-head record against IMT. But if DIG beat C9, the resulting three-way tiebreaker between IMT/100T/DIG would be played, leaving IMT with a chance.)
    • IMT win resulting two-, three-, or four-way tiebreaker with 100T and/or CLG and/or DIG (even if only IMT and 100T end up with six wins, like the above scenario, IMT would still make the playoffs even though they lose the tiebreaker to 100T.)
    • OR
    • IMT go 1-1 against FLY/TL
    • CLG lose to C9 and FLY
    • DIG lose to 100T and/or C9
    • IMT win resulting two-way tiebreaker against CLG (if DIG go 0-2) or three-way tiebreaker that would also include DIG (if DIG go 1-1)

The 2020 LCS Summer Split continues on Friday, Aug. 7 at 8pm CT.


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