Can Team USA beat England at the World Cup? Football Manager 23 determines the odds of an upset

The World Cup in Qatar is a slow burner so far, but with the group stage entering its second round, teams are beginning to find themselves with their backs against the wall. Team USA isn’t exactly there yet, but it’s fair to say that Iran’s late victory vs. Wales put a hefty amount of pressure on the USMNT players.

A tie in the earlier Group B game today could have allowed the U.S. to play for a draw against England and possibly qualify for the round of 16 with another draw in their last match vs. Iran. As things stand, Team USA need a win, either today or in a few days, if they have any hopes of qualifying.

England enters the game in a much different mood. A victory guarantees progression and makes pushing the European nation out of first place in Group B possible only in theory. Of course, defeat could drag the English straight back into battling for their skin. Nevertheless, England are in a better spot and are the heavy favorites to beat Team USA.

FIFA 23 doesn’t give the United States much of a shot at an upset. Now it’s time to ask another prominent soccer simulator, Football Manager 23. Can Team USA beat England? We can’t tell the future, but if FM23 can, then American fans might have a lot to cheer for.

We simulated the England vs. USA 2022 World Cup game 10 times to see if any tendencies would develop. There will only be one match in reality, though, and the first simulation we ran resulted in a 1-0 U.S. win courtesy of an Antonee Robinson goal. Going by that only, Football Manager 23’s official prognosis is a Team USA win.

Going beyond the one-off upset theory, FM23 truly believes the USMNT has a legitimate chance at upsetting the odds. The North American nation was leading the head-to-head up until game seven. England finished on a run of three wins and a draw, which pushed them to an overall score of five victories, two draws, and three defeats.

If we’re to believe Football Manager 23, Team USA has a 50 percent chance at avoiding defeat and odds of 30 percent to get all three points. For a team considered an underdog, these numbers are nothing short of encouraging.