What are the odds of finding a Shiny Pokémon at Go Fest 2024: Global?

Pokémon Go Fest 2024: Global is approaching, and trainers worldwide will try to find as many shiny Pokémon as possible during the global event.

Trainers who haven’t bought the ticket are quietly questioning what the actual odds might be and if it’s worth picking up the ticket at all—or giving the event a miss.

Pokémon Go Fest 2024: Global shiny odds explained

There’s no way to officially tell what the shiny odds are at Pokémon Go Fest 2024: Global, and based on previous years of disappointment, the shiny odds could be minimal at best.

Niantic recently debunked a popular shiny theory when we met some of the devs at Go Fest Madrid regarding in-person events but had no details to share on the exact odds for the Global portion.

Officially, Niantic says chances to shinies during these paid events are higher. Still, as official numbers have never been revealed, we can only do some guesswork and assumptions based on previous years and similar events.

If we base it on the odds of finding a shiny in-game normally and then some unconfirmed reports, we would guess that the chance of finding a shiny is maybe 1/64. For every encounter of a single Pokémon, you should find a shiny within 64 encounters.

Honestly, these odds are a bit more forgiving than what the actual odds likely are because some people will have better luck than others. Anything you get during the weekend is a win, and we hope you get what you are looking for—trainers!