Mar 30 2015 - 9:24 pm
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Quarterfinal LCS Elo Rankings

EU LCS The EU LCS saw very little change in the rankings, aside from the dramatic fall of Roccat.
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EU LCS

The EU LCS saw very little change in the rankings, aside from the dramatic fall of Roccat. With both Fnatic and SK Gaming going undefeated they further distanced themselves from the pack, creating a huge gap between the top 2 teams and the rest of the league. At this point the rating difference between SK Gaming and 4th ranked Elements is almost as large as the difference between 3rd ranked H2k and 10th ranked Roccat. Such a gap in rating should show up in the semifinal round with some one sided series in favor of SK Gaming and Fnatic. In the rest of the league there weren’t many very impactful moves, Giants Gaming two wins to close out the week weren’t even enough to see them overtake Meet Your Makers. Despite finishing 7th in the rankings, Meet Your Makers will unfortunately be auto relegated due. The dubious honor of last place in the rankings belongs to Roccat, who took the spot with a combination of a 0-2 week 9 and Giants Gaming last second surge.

Rank

Team

Rating

Rating Change

Rank Change

1

SK Gaming

1648

+17

-

2

Fnatic

1616

+26

-

3

H2K Gaming

1573

-3

-

4

Elements

1502

-

-

5

Gambit Gaming

1502

+5

-

6

Unicorns of Love

1461

-17

-

7

Copenhagen Wolves

1436

-2

+1

8

Meet Your Makers

1428

-3

+1

9

Giants Gaming

1420

+18

+1

10

Roccat

1414

-31

-3

 

Copenhagen Wolves and Roccat remained as unpredictable as ever, combining for the three incorrect predictions on the week, leaving the Elo rankings with a 7-3 record for the week. When I publish the rankings for the entire summer split I will keep a season prediction record, and we can see how accurate these Elo predictions are.

The EU playoffs are by far the more lopsided playoffs, as the region is incredibly top heavy. H2k Gaming is predicted to win 69 percent of the time, which means that we will most likely see a 3-1 in favor of H2k, with a 3-0 series then next most probable.

The other semifinal features Gambit Gaming and Unicorns of Love, with Gambit favored to win 56 percent of the time. This series should be much closer, with the Elo ratings favoring a 3-2 or 3-1 in favor of Gambit. For EU the Elo rankings favor the higher seed in each playoff series, with Gambit Gaming poised to be a much closer matchup than H2k and Copenhagen Wolves. Although the Wolves did just ruin as many predictions as they could last week, so let’s see if they can do it two weeks in a row.

High Seed

Win Probability

Low Seed

Win Probability

H2k Gaming

69%

Copenhagen Wolves

31%

Gambit Gaming

56%

Unicorns of Love

44%

 alt

NA LCS

The NA LCS saw much more change in the rankings as Cloud 9 and Winterfox made late season pushes to keep things interesting. Heading into the playoffs Cloud 9 has reacquired their throne atop the Elo rankings, based on their quality win over TSM which means that heading into the playoffs, although they aren’t the top seed Elo has them as the team to beat. With three 1-1 weeks for the 3rd 4th and 5th ranked teams there was very little change in the ratings of those teams. However, despite being the 3rd seed, CLG is still in 5th in Elo ranking heading into the playoffs. Both Gravity and Team Impulse are above CLG in the rankings, which could keep things interesting later on in the tournament. Team liquid grabbed the 6th place spot on the back of Team 8’s heartbreaking week, and Winterfox’s stellar play boosted them ahead of Dignitas, which bodes well for their upcoming relegation games. Despite winning only one game Team Coast managed to avoid the worst Elo rating in history, the 1319 rating that Meet Your Makers held at the end of the 2013 EU LCS Summer split.

Rank

Team

Rating

Rating Change

Rank Change

1

Cloud 9

1630

+36

+1

2

Team Solo Mid

1615

-11

-1

3

Team Impulse

1563

-6

-

4

Gravity

1528

+2

-

5

Counter Logic Gaming

1518

-8

-

6

Team liquid

1492

+6

+1

7

Team 8

1467

-38

-1

8

Winterfox

1439

+30

+1

9

Team Dignitas

1424

+7

-1

10

Team Coast

1325

-16

-

 

Again the Elo rankings went 7-3 for predictions on the week, with the Team Liquid loss to Team 8, the Team Dignitas upset of Team Impulse, and the Cloud 9 win over TSM all unpredicted. Both playoff matches are remarkably close in Elo, with CLG and Team Impulse being favored by 54 and 55 percent respectively. Like the Gambit Gaming vs. Unicorns of Love match we should see a 3-2 or 3-1 in favor of the higher seeded team. While these picks don’t make for very bold predictions, they do speak to the relative closeness of the playoff games. Should the winner of these matches meet up in the third place match later on in the tournament though, the higher seeded team may not be favored anymore.

High Seed

Win Probability

Red Team

Low Seed

Counter Logic Gaming

54%

Team Liquid

46%

Team Impulse

55%

Gravity

45%

Enjoy the first week of playoffs and thanks for reading!

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