Image via Counter-Strike.net

CS:GO cases Wear and Grade odds

"The odds are with us. Or are they?"

CS:GO cases are one of the more unique aspects of the game. In addition to killer gameplay, they offer an element of surprise and fun.

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Until 2018, the players were going blindly against the odds without knowing their chances. After CS:GO made its debut in China, the distributor of the game, Perfect World, was obligated to share the wear and grade odds of the cases.

Of course, the CS:GO community also had to confirm these numbers by conducting their own research. We’ve gathered the odds so you can enjoy cracking your cases more responsibly.

Grade odds, according to Perfect World

  • Blue (Mil-spec, High grade) – 100 items – 79.92%
  • Purple (Restricted, Remarkable) – 20 items – 15.98%
  • Pink (Classified, Exotic) – 4 items – 3.2%
  • Red (Covert, Extraordinary) – 0.8 items – 0.64%
  • Yellow (Melee Weapons) – 0.32 items – 0.26%

Wear and Grade odds, according to CS:GO community

If the Perfect World’s sample size of 125.12 cases is not convincing enough for you, taking a look at the odds that the CS:GO community found is recommended to confirm them. The following data is from 4,500 case openings and you can also take a look at the raw version of it here.

Grade odds

  • Blue (Mil-spec, High grade)—79.19 percent
  • Purple (Restricted, Remarkable)—15.96 percent
  • Pink (Classified, Exotic)—3.66 percent
  • Red (Covert, Extraordinary)—0.91 percent
  • Yellow (Melee Weapons)—0.31 percent
    • Any item also has a 10 percent chance of having the StatTrak trait.

Wear odds

  • Well-Worn—7.92 percent
  • Battle-Scarred—9.93 percent
  • Field-Tested—43.18 percent
  • Minimal Wear—24.68 percent
  • Factory New—14.71 percent
    • 10.09 percent of the skins were also StatTrak versions.

Both the community’s and Perfect World’s numbers match with small margins of error while confirming another piece of community research, which took place in 2014, that had more than 2,000 cases. If you think the odds are with you but don’t know which cases you should open, you can check out our review that takes a look at the best cases to open in CS:GO


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Author
Gökhan Çakır
Gökhan is a Staff Writer and Fortnite Lead at Dot Esports. Gökhan graduated as an industrial engineer in 2020 and has since been with Dot Esports. As a natural-born gamer, he honed his skills to a professional level in Dota 2. Upon giving up on the Aegis of Champions in 2019, Gökhan started his writing career, covering all things gaming, while his heart remains a lifetime defender of the Ancients.