What are the Shiny odds in Pokémon Scarlet and Violet?

Modifiers only work with two methods this time.

The player character getting ready to Terastallize their Pokémon in Scarlet and Violet.
Image via The Pokémon Company

Beating a Pokémon game typically opens the door to post-game content. But a large portion of the community tends to take their journey a step further by attempting to hunt for and capture Shiny Pokémon

Much like Pokémon Legends: Arceus, Scarlet and Violet have implemented several core changes to how the franchise’s Shiny formula has worked in past games—namely through the addition of new boost mechanics, Tera Raids, and the Let’s Go style of battling. And that doesn’t even take into account the return of Mass Outbreaks and variable odds depending on the type of battle you are in. 

Just like in most of the more recent Pokémon titles, all static encounters, or Pokémon that are always going to be encountered at a certain location or set point in quests, are Shiny-locked. This means players will not be able to reset their game after saving before set encounters to try and find a Shiny Legendary or starter Pokémon. The same applies to Gift Pokémon and in-game trades with NPCs too. 

But for players who do want to Shiny hunt in the Paldea region, everything else is fair game and the odds are fairly straightforward. So here is everything we know about the Shiny odds in Scarlet and Violet.

Full Pokémon Scarlet and Violet wild encounters, Mass Outbreaks, and Shiny Charm Shiny Pokémon odds and modifiers

Just like with most of the modern entries in the franchise, Pokémon Scarlet and Violet share base Shiny odds of one in 4,096, which translates to the idea that one of every 4,096 Pokémon you see should theoretically be Shiny. 

Using certain Sandwich recipes, players can activate something called Sparkling Power, a boost that will passively increase Shiny odds. But Sparkling Power is based on Pokémon type, which means matching up other type-related boosts will not only see encounter chances rise but give you vastly increased Shiny odds too. 

Specifically, achieving Sparkling Power Lv. 3 for any type will boost your base Shiny odds from one in 4,096 to one in 1,024.38 encounters—giving you the equivalent of four additional Shiny rolls without taking into account other modifiers. 

The Shiny Charm makes a return in Scarlet and Violet, providing players with three additional Shiny rolls per encounter, bringing its odds to one in 1,365.67. And combining it with Sparkling Power Lv. 3 for any type will bring those odds to one in 683.08. 

The final method for encountering wild Shinies with individually boosted odds is Mass Outbreaks, which work similarly to how they did in Legends: Arceus minus the Research Level modifier. This time, clearing Pokémon during a Mass Outbreak is how you increase Shiny odds, with modifiers kicking in after you clear 30 Pokémon and 60 Pokémon. 

Clearing 30 Pokémon in a Mass Outbreak will give you an additional Shiny roll, bringing your odds to one in 2048.25 encounters, and doubling that to 60 or more Pokémon cleared will set you at one in 1,365.67 odds. Combining just Sparkling Power Lv. 3 with those Mass Outbreak modifiers will give you one in 819.60 or one in 683.08 Shiny odds, respectively. 

The real kicker comes when you combine all three boosting methods. At max with the Shiny Charm active, 60 or more Pokémon cleared in a Mass Outbreak, and the right Sparkling Power Lv. 3 applied, you can achieve a one in 512.44 Shiny encounter chance—not nearly as high as the max odds from Legends Arceus but still a good modifier. 

There are additional modifiers for Sparkling Power Lv. 1 and 2, but most players will want to reserve the resources needed to cook the proper recipes for when they can make the most out of them as Sparkling Power Lv. 3 maximizes the boosts. 

Full Pokémon Scarlet and Violet Egg and Breeding Shiny Pokémon odds and modifiers

The breeding method for Scarlet and Violet has been entirely localized to the new Picnic mechanic, meaning players will be able to get Eggs on the go without needing to wait around. But Sparkling Power boosts will not increase Shiny odds for Eggs, meaning players are stuck with the good old Masuda Method once again. 

At its base, Egg Shiny odds are the same as wild encounters at one in 4,096. With the Shiny Charm, that can be lowered to one in 2048.25. 

The Masuda Method, which was named after longtime Pokémon franchise composer, director, and producer Junichi Masuda, makes use of two Pokémon from different geographical versions of the game to increase the Shiny odds from Eggs obtained via breeding. This has always been the best way to obtain Shiny Pokémon through Eggs, and in SV, the base odds remain the usual one in 683.08. 

Combining the Shiny Charm and Masuda Method will net you the same Shiny odds as combining all three wild encounter modifiers, one in 512.44, likely making it the optimal way to Shiny hunt. 

Full Pokémon Scarlet and Violet Tera Raid Shiny odds and modifiers

Just like with Research Levels in Legends: Arceus, Tera Raids add a new wrinkle to the Shiny formula. It not only has worse base odds than wild and Egg encounters but also doesn’t take into account any bonuses. 

At its base, players will have a one in 4,103.05 chance at encountering a Shiny Pokémon in Tera Raids. This is slightly worse than the normal Shiny odds for other encounters and there is currently no way to manipulate the odds with modifiers. 

According to the data, pulled by data miner Anubis, this is because Tera Raids use a 32-seed system that puts them at 1,046,775 out of 4,294,967,295 seeds being Shiny. They also use different generation formulas that prevent players from predicting future raids and manipulating related factors like what was possible in Sword and Shield.

Author

Cale Michael
Lead Staff Writer for Dota 2, the FGC, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!, and more who has been writing for Dot Esports since 2018. Graduated with a degree in Journalism from Oklahoma Christian University and also previously covered the NBA. You can usually find him writing, reading, or watching an FGC tournament.