After Santorin recently stating at the end of the NALCS broadcast, that TSM can place first at IEM Katowice, I attempt to show why they have no right to be confident.
When Santorin said this on the broadcast, I was reasonably astounded at TSM’s confidence, from what I had seen in their losses against both Team Liquid and CLG, they had problems that shouldn’t be fixable overnight.
This is clearly nothing but sheer, misplaced overconfidence. And I don’t this opinion solely from the performance of IEM San Jose – there’s actually an abundance of evidence why TSM shouldn’t be able to place anywhere near first place. If CLG could teamfight on a level closer to TSM, and Team Liquid could effectively close out games then TSM would have two very crushing losses this season.
The key here, seems to be the dragon – while TSM did win versus CLG they had a dragon deficit the entire game. It really puzzles me why TSM, or Locodoco thinks it is permissible or okay to not fight a single dragon some games. Reviewing what Locodoco said after IEM San Jose – that he, ‘read’ the meta completely wrong, it seems as if he never read the meta in the first place. I really fail to see a significant impact of TSM’s coach here, Dyrus has played Rumble and Kennen in the past, and to varying degrees to success, but no one would say Dyrus is particularly bad on these champions.
The four drake deficit against CLG almost suggests that Loco never read the meta in the first place, maybe he forgot to read the stats on aspect of the dragon – I don’t know.
Taking all of this into account, Santorin’s confidence and almost certainty of the possibility of placing first at Katowice is simply baffling. His confidence seems more than just somewhat misplaced – do TSM really think that teams like GE, WE and CJ will not punish Wildturtle for flashing for 2 autoattacks on the support in teamfights?
Of course, this is almost pure speculation – TSM are not a bad team but at this stage it seems ludicrous that they would place anywhere that first spot. Although Bjergsen has always been Lord Regi’s gift to TSM, he can always hype up TSM and carry them to victory, something of course, Reginald himself couldn’t conceive of doing.
I cannot see vast quantities of Loco’s impact of influence in TSM’s play, and the complete lack of drake control in some games really raises some worrying questions for TSM.