Aug 10 2015 - 10:23 pm
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International Elo Ratings

International Elo Ratings The LCS Playoffs began this weekend with the Quarterfinals.
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International Elo Ratings

The LCS Playoffs began this weekend with the Quarterfinals. The matches went more-or-less as expected with the higher rated team winning each time, the heavy favourites (Impulse and H2K) earning 3-0 sweeps, and the Unicorns going to 5 games in what was definitely the match of the weekend (at in the West).

In the LPL last minute campaigns by World Elite and RNG ended in failure; the teams that had been in the top-8 since Week 5 were the teams that made playoffs. That said WE pulled off an impressive upset over Invictus.

The bottom-tier Korean teams had a marquee week with IM and Anarchy taking games off of CJ and KT and even Jin Air managed to beat Koo. 

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Unfortunately due to some technical details I had to leave the IWC teams off this week, which is too bad as most just finished their playoffs. A brief description of the methodology is here. Updated playoff predictions for the LCS, and new ones for the LPL, are on the next page.

 

North America

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With Dignitas and Gravity locked into the 5th/6th spots (and DIG eliminated from the Regional Gauntlet) there is only 1st-4th to play for. The biggest winner this weekend in terms of 1st place probability was Impulse. Not only did they prove that they were a strong team with Gate replacing Xiaoweixiao, they actually over-performed and reached their highest rating ever and are now slight favourites to take 1st over Liquid. The other big winner was TSM who recovered from a pretty significant slump (Their performance over the last 3 weeks was the second worst in NA), and now look like strong contenders for 3rd, which is all they need to guarantee a spot at World's. That said Gravity also looked pretty shaky during the last few weeks of the splits; it's entirely possible that TSM is still being over-rated.

Europe

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In Europe Fnatic remains the overwhelming favourite. H2K's position is very similar to TSM's: a historically strong team that until recently looked very weak; unfortunately their show of strength came against a much worse team and as a result their true strength is hard to gauge. It's also worth considering that Origen, who guaranteed themselves a playoff spot several weeks ago, did not practice much near the end of the split which probably contributed to their mediocrity. In any case the ratings give a slight edge to H2K but, personally, I'd bet on Origen.

LPL playoff predictions on the next page.

LPL Playoff Predictions

After 11 weeks and a staggering 264 games the marathon that is the LPL has come to a close without real surprises. Neither RNG nor WE managed to make the playoffs, while EDG and QG easily secured the coveted top 2 seeds. The LPL Playoff system can be pretty confusing (and a hassle to simulate); an explanation of it can be found here.

Before delving into the precise odds that the elo-ratings produced I think it would be worth looking at a much simpler metric: recent win-loss.

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Several things are made immediately apparent by this extremely informative chart. Firstly, EDG is extremely dominant; they've won every game since their teams injury/roster-experimentation induced wobble in the mid-season. Secondly, the LPL is an extremely close league. Every team has won at least a quarter of their games; no team but EDG has won even two-thirds; 9 of the 12 teams have winrates between 40% and 60%. Thirdly, Masters3 are one of the worst teams, if not the worst team outright, despite making playoffs. Indeed, they demonstrate the danger created by such a long season: a team that fades down the stretch could nonetheless coast into playoffs on their early success (See: Giants! and Dignitas for comparison).

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The key to playoff success in the LPL is avoiding EDG at all costs. QG is a strong favourite to finish 2nd not because of their strength as a team but because they cannot face EDG until the final. But if you can't get perfect seeding then strength as a team is the next best thing. That's what LGD has.They're the second most successful team over the last 5 weeks of the LPL and are the second highest rated. They're a favourite to go far and, depending on how the seeding system works out, could well face EDG in the final; this would be a rematch of last split's final.

 

 

 

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