How accurate is the fan vote in predicting games? And other NA LCS fan vote statistics

For a day-by-day breakdown of NA LCS fan vote statistics, check Pages 2 & 3. Page 2 has information for Weeks 1-4. Page 3 has information for Weeks 5-8. This information was found from lolesports.com. Expect an article about the EU LCS soon!

I decided to do some digging to see how accurate the fanvote was in predicting NA LCS games. Here are some general statistics/fun facts about the fan vote!

Total Prediction Record: 53 Correct, 27 Wrong

Overall, fans had a pretty good grasp of which teams were strong. It’s true that some fans vote with their hearts rather than their heads (or even just to troll), but with a total 66% prediction record, a betting man who knew nothing about League of Legends would be well-served asking the LoL community who was likely to win.

Weeks 1-4 Record: 26 Correct, 14 Wrong

Weeks 5-8 Record: 27 Correct, 13 Wrong

Unfortunately, fans didn’t get better at predictions as the season went on. Even though it seems like games would be easier to predict with more knowledge of teams, the inconsistency of teams like TL, C9, and WFX meant that the fans just couldn’t get the job done. That being said, fans did correct their initial poor perceptions of CLG.

Team most often predicted to win: Team SoloMid (15-1)

Although fans thought TSM would lose the season opener against Cloud9, they have predicted a TSM victory in every single game since. TSM hasn’t won every game, but a tidy 12-4 record (best in the league) shows that fans have been largely rewarded for their faith in “America’s team.”

Team most often predicted to lose: Team Coast (0-16)

On the other hand, CST was never predicted to win by LoL fans (a concerted effort from Reddit briefly moved Coast into a favored position against Gravity during Week 6, but they were moved back down to the underdog position before the voting ended.) Although Coast (1-15) was able to take a win from Winterfox in Week 1 and had very close games against Dig and T8 in the first two weeks, fans were justified in always predicting Team Coast losses.

Most overestimated team: Cloud9, Team Liquid (6 losses with a predicted win)

Two of the teams that were considered favorites heading into this LCS season have underperformed when compared to the initial perceptions. Both teams still have days where they look like top teams, but their their inconsistent nature means that they have been unable to meet the fan vote expectations.

Most underestimated team: Team Impulse (6 wins after a predicted loss)

On the other hand, TiP (10-6) has been the surprise of the season. After losing many of their players and bringing on a very under-hyped bot lane in Apollo and Adrian, most fans thought that TiP would be one of the weaker teams this LCS. After a slow start to the season, many of their “underdog” wins have come during their recent run of form. It looks like TiP has put it together but the fans haven’t figured it out yet.

Honorable mention goes to Team8, who scored 5 victories against fan expectations.

Most reliable team: Team Coast (Fans were correct 15 times)

Unfortunately for them, Team Coast’s games have been the easiest to predict this season. Guessing a Team Coast loss has proven correct 15/16 times.

Outside of Team Coast, fans successfully predicted the game results in 11 out of 15 games for Team SoloMid, Counter Logic Gaming, and Team Dignitas.

Least reliable team: Cloud9, TL, Team Impulse (Fans were wrong 8 times)

The teams fans were most wrong about are (quite logically) the most underestimated and most overestimated teams. Funnily enough, fans were wrong an additional 2 times to their over/under estimations – TL and C9 scored 2 wins in matches fans expected them to lose and TiP lost 2 games in spite of fan expectation.

Here is a breakdown of each LCS game along with fanvote, games where the fans were wrong are italicized. These are the stats for Weeks 1-4.

Week 1, Day 1

TSM (48.68%) vs. C9 (51.32%) – TSM win

CST (34.78%) vs. Dig (65.22%) – Dig win

WFX (56.01%) vs. GV (43.99%) – GV win

TiP (26.17%) vs. TL (73.83%) – TL win

CLG (81.34%) vs. T8 (18.66%) – T8 win

Week 1, Day 2

Dig (58.74%) vs. TiP (41.26%) – TiP win

CST (27.38%) vs. WFX (72.62%) – CST win

TL (53.66%) vs. CLG (46.34%) – TL win

C9 (91.53%) vs. GV (8.47%) – GV win

T8 (8.71%) vs. TSM (91.29%) – T8 win

Week 2, Day 1

GV (52.51%) vs. Dig (46.49%) – GV win

T8 (53.10%) vs. CST (46.90%) – T8 win

C9 (41.35%) vs. TL (58.65%) – C9 win

TiP (36.37%) vs. CLG (63.63%) – CLG win

TSM (80.83%) vs. WFX (19.17%) – TSM win

Week 2, Day 2

CLG (37.08) vs. C9 (62.92%) – CLG win

Dig (41.34%) vs. WFX (58.66%) – WFX win

TSM (61.01%) vs. TL (38.99%) – TSM win

TiP (50.75%) vs. T8 (49.25%) – TiP win

CST (32.11%) vs. GV (67.89%) – GV win

Week 3, Day 1

GV (69.01%) vs. TiP (30.99%) – TiP win

C9 (79.39%) vs. T8 (20.62%) – C9 win

Dig (7.12%) vs. TSM (92.88%) – TSM win

TL (90.72%) vs. CST (9.28%) – TL win

WFX (22.64%) vs. CLG (77.36%) – CLG win

Week 3, Day 2

C9 (91.97%) vs. CST (8.03%) – C9 win

CLG (79.83%) vs. GV (20.17%) – CLG win

TL (89.77%) vs. Dig (10.23%) – Dig win

T8 (37.45%) vs. WFX (62.55%) – T8 win

TSM (88.14%) vs. TiP (11.86%) – TSM win

Week 4, Day 1

CST (7.09%) vs. CLG (92.91%) – CLG win

WFX (37.40%) vs. TiP (62.6%) – WFX win

Dig (11.81%) vs. C9 (88.19%) – C9 win

T8 (23.39%) vs. TL (76.61%) – TL win

GV (11.2%) vs. TSM (88.8%) – TSM win

Week 4, Day 2

WFX (16.62%) vs. C9 (83.38%) – WFX win

TiP (84.11%) vs. CST (15.89%) – TiP win

CLG (39.76%) vs. TSM (60.24%) – TSM win

GV (22.98%) vs. TL (77.02%) – GV win

Dig (40.58%) vs. T8 (59.42%) – Dig win

Here is a continued breakdown of each LCS game along with fanvote, games where the fans were wrong are italicized. These are the stats for Weeks 5-8.

Week 5, Day 1

TL (62.01%) vs. WFX (37.99%) – WFX win

T8 (26.74%) vs. GV (73.26%) – GV win

C9 (80.97%) vs. TiP (19.03%) – C9 win

Dig (10.46%) vs. CLG (89.54%) – CLG win

TSM (93.19%) vs. CST (6.81%) – TSM win

Week 5, Day 2

C9 (39.37%) vs. CLG (60.63%) – C9 win

TL (15.09%) vs. TSM (84.91%) – TL win

WFX (80.61%) vs. Dig (19.39%) – Dig win

CST (21.09%) vs. T8 (78.91%) – T8 win

TiP (40.73%) vs. GV (59.27%) – TiP win

Week 6, Day 1

CST (6.68%) vs. C9 (93.32%) – C9 win

T8 (30.83%) vs. TiP (69.17%) – T8 win

TL (69.71%) vs. GV (30.29%) – TL win

TSM (91.79%) vs. Dig (8.21%) – TSM win

CLG (82.22%) vs. WFX (17.78%) – CLG win

Week 6, Day 2

GV (65.52%) vs. CST (34.48%) – GV win

C9 (82.26%) vs. WFX (17.74%) – C9 win

TiP (11.3%) vs. TSM (88.7%) – TiP win

CLG (72.84%) vs. TL (27.16%) – TL win

T8 (57.27%) vs. Dig (42.48%) – T8 win

Week 7, Day 1

Dig (82.06%) vs. CST (17.94%) – Dig win

GV (18.36%) vs. CLG (81.62%) – CLG win

WFX (13.40%) vs. TSM (86.60%) – TSM win

TiP (16.91%) vs. C9 (83.08%) – TiP win

TL (85.22%) vs. T8 (14.78%) – T8 win

Week 7, Day 2

C9 (89.45%) vs. Dig (10.55%) – C9 win

TSM (87.59%) vs. T8 (12.41%) – TSM win

TL (67.20%) vs. TiP (32.80%) – TiP win

GV (55.22%) vs. WFX (32.80%) – GV win

CLG (90.00%) vs. CST (10.00%) – CLG win

Week 8, Day 1

CST (12.14%) vs. TiP (87.86%) – TiP win

TL (31.3%) vs. C9 (68.7%) – C9 win

TSM (89.91%) vs. GV (10.09%) – GV win

CLG (90.12%) vs. Dig (9.88%) – CLG win

WFX (44.34%) vs. T8 (55.66%) – T8 win

Week 8, Day 2

Dig (22.04%) vs. GV (77.96%) – GV win

TSM (65.37%) vs. CLG (34.63%) – TSM win

T8 (17.68%) vs. C9 (82.32%) – T8 win

TiP (79.53%) vs. WFX (20.47%) – TiP win

CST (11.5%) vs. TL (88.5%) – TL win