26 March 2015 - 06:37
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How Accurate is the Fan Vote? And other EU LCS Fan vote stats

FOR NA FAN VOTE STATISTICS, CLICK HERE. For a day-by-day breakdown of EU LCS fan vote statistics, check Pages 2 & 3. Page 2 has information for Weeks 1-4. Page 3 has information for Weeks 5-8. This information was found from lolesports.com.
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FOR NA FAN VOTE STATISTICS, CLICK HERE.

For a day-by-day breakdown of EU LCS fan vote statistics, check Pages 2 & 3. Page 2 has information for Weeks 1-4. Page 3 has information for Weeks 5-8. This information was found from lolesports.com.

It's important to note the fan vote doesn't always indicate who fans think will win - some fans vote with their hearts rather than their heads and others are just big trolls.

I decided to do some digging to see how accurate the fanvote was in predicting EU LCS games. Here are some general statistics/fun facts about the fan vote!

In spite of the EU region's reputation for unpredictability, EU fans managed to score the rare perfect day twice. Once on Week 2 Day 1 and again on Week 7 Day 2. Both times they correctly predicting all five game wins! On Week 8 Day 2, the fans scored a 2/2 after the middle 3 games had no fan vote because the stream had isseus.

Overall Record: 48-29 (62%)

In spite of ability to score two perfect weeks (there were no perfect weeks in NA) fans of the EU LCS generally had a harder time predicting the results of the games (62% to 66%.) However, 62% is still a good amount above 50-50, so even if EU LCS fans may be voting for the teams they want to win rather than the teams they think will win, they have still done a good job of predicting game-winners.

Week 1-4 Record: 24-16 (60%)

Week 5-8 Record: 24-13 (65%)

In the NA LCS, fans didn't seem to get better at predicting games as the split went on. In EU, the fans correctly identified that Copenhagen Wolves, H2k Gaming, and Fnatic were all secret forces to be reckoned with. They also eventually adjusted to ROCCAT, lowering their expectations to fit their low performance.

90% fan vote curse: 5 total

Fans didn't have a lot of trust in MYM, probably due to their poor performance at the start of the split and the scary organizational issues that surrounded the team. Near the end of the split, they scored two victories in spite of less than 10% of the fans believing in them. CPW managed to same feat, with both wins happening in the first 4 weeks of the season instead of at the end. (The last upset loss came from H2k) On the flip side, UoL was victim to the 90% fan vote curse twice, once against CPW and once against MYM. Joining them with a single upset loss each was the old guard of Europe: Fnatic, Gambit, and Elements.

Most often picked to win: FNC

The team might as well be named after their fans. After not believing in Fnatic's first game, the EU LCS fans chose Fnatic as the winner in every single game after that.

Most often picked to lose: MYM

After picking them to win against the wolves (a game they lost) fans never picked MYM to win again; in fact they would usually score less than 10% of the fan vote. Fortunately for those players, they managed to score some wins regardless.

Most "upset" team: SK, EL, H2k, UoL

Reflecting the very close nature of EU teams, these four teams were all upset 4 times in spite of favorable fan votes. In the case of EL and UoL, fans may simply have been voting with their hearts instead of their heads - both teams have very wide fanbases and lost an unusual number of games with 80%+ fan votes. On the other hand, SK and H2k saw roller coaster seasons, so the fans naturally had a hard time predicting them.

Upset kings: CW, H2k

The team most often upset is also the king of scoring upsets. H2k managed 5 wins against the fan vote, tied with the Copenhagen Wolves. After H2k's slow start to the season, fans were slow in picking up that they were one of the best teams in Europe. At the same time, CW is a team many consider underdogs due to their poor performance in past LCS splits. Their healthy record shows that they are a big step up from the wolves of old.

Most unpredictable team: H2k

Naturally, the team most often upset that also manages to score the most upsets is the most unpredictable, with 9 games going against the fanvote.

Most reliable team: GMB

Gambit may have three new members this split, but Europe still knows them best, correctly predicting the result of a Gambit game all but three times.

Here is a breakdown of each LCS game along with fanvote, games where the fans were wrong are italicized. These are the stats for Weeks 1-4.

Week 1, Day 1

EL (73.03%) vs. FNC (26.97%) - FNC win

GIA (45.12%) vs. MYM (54.88%) - GIA win

CPW (41.90%) vs. H2k (58.10%) - CPW win

SK (49.89%) vs. ROC (50.11%) - SK win

GMB (42.87%) vs. UoL (57.13%) - UoL win

Week 1, Day 2

MYM (19.26%) vs. SK (80.74%) - SK win

GIA (47.56%) vs. CPW (52.44%) - GIA win

ROC (55.69%) vs. GMB (44.31%) - ROC win

FNC (79.44%) vs. H2k (20.56%) - FNC win

UoL (47.68%) vs. EL (52.32%) - EL win

Week 2, Day 1

H2k (65.82%) vs. MYM (34.48%) - H2k win

UoL (62.47%) vs. GIA (37.53%) - UoL win

FNC (83.69%) vs. ROC (16.31%) - FNC win

SK (79.3%) vs. GMB (20.68%) - SK win

EL (85.28%) vs. CPW (14.72%) - EL win

Week 2, Day 2

GMB (11.43%) vs. FNC (88.57%) - FNC win

GIA (63.43%) vs. H2k (36.57%) - H2k win

EL (76.85%) vs. ROC (23.51%) - EL win

SK (50.84%) vs. UoL (49.18%) - SK win

MYM (26.76%) vs. CPW (73.24%) - MYM win

Week 3, Day 1

H2k (13.81%) vs. SK (86.19%) - SK win

FNC (73.92%) vs. UoL (26.18%) - UoL win

MYM (7.22%) vs. EL (92.78%) - EL win

ROC (63.16%) vs. GIA (36.84%) - ROC win

CPW (47.67%) vs. GMB (52.33%) - CPW win

Week 3, Day 2

FNC (90.81) vs. GIA (9.19%) - FNC win

GMB (37.08%) vs. H2k (62.92%) - GMB win

ROC (89.57%) vs. MYM (10.43%) - ROC win

UoL (90.83%) vs. CPW (9.17%) - CPW win

EL (54.00%) vs. SK (46.00%) - SK win

Week 4, Day 1

GIA (49.08%) vs. GMB (50.92%) - GMB win

H2k (9.22%) vs. EL (90.78%) - H2k win

MYM (4.48%) vs. FNC (95.52%) - FNC win

UoL (68.84%) vs. ROC (33.16%) - UoL win

CPW (11.67%) vs. SK (88.33%) - SK win

Week 4, Day 2

H2k (35.52%) vs. ROC (64.88%) - H2k win

SK Gaming (90.57%) vs. GIA (9.43%) - SK win

GMB (21.56%) vs. EL (78.44%) - GMB win

CPW (8.03%) vs. FNC (91.97%) - CPW win

MYM (5.65%) vs. UoL (94.35%) - UoL win

Here is a breakdown of each LCS game along with fanvote, games where the fans were wrong are italicized. These are the stats for Weeks 5-8.

Week 5, Day 1

ROC (47.50%) vs. CPW (52.50%) - CPW win

EL (85.81%) vs. GIA (14.19%) - GIA win

FNC (50.74%) vs. SK (49.26%) - FNC win

MYM (12.35%) vs. GMB (87.55%) - GMB win

UoL (86.64%) vs. H2k (13.36%) - H2k win

Week 5, Day 2

FNC (82.88%) vs. GMB (17.32) - GMB win

 

ROC (26.65%) vs. EL (73.35%) - ROC win

CPW (90.53%) vs. MYM (9.47%) - CPW win

GIA (12.75%) vs. UoL (87.25%) - GIA win

SK (86.03%) vs. H2k (13.97%) - H2k win

Week 6, Day 1

GIA (12.83%) vs. FNC (87.17%) - FNC win

UoL (37.02%) vs. SK (62.98%) - UoL win

ROC (36.35%) vs. H2k (63.65%) - H2k win

EL (86.86%) vs. MYM (13.14%) - EL win

GMB (62.52%) vs. CPW (37.48%) - GMB win

Week 6, Day 2

H2k (82.58%) vs. GIA (17.42%) - H2k win

FNC (86.10%) vs. CPW (13.90%) - FNC win

SK (54.82%) vs. EL (45.18%) - SK win

GMB (78.50%) vs. ROC (21.50%) - GMB win

UoL (93.61%) vs. MYM (6.31%) - MYM win

Week 7, Day 1

MYM (22.27%) vs. GIA (77.73%) - MYM win

H2k (40.20%) vs. GMB (59.80%) - H2k win

CPW (39.04%) vs. EL (60.98%) - CPW win

SK (31.23%) vs. FNC (68.77%) - FNC win

ROC (18.74%) vs. UoL (81.26%) - ROC win

Week 7, Day 2

ROC (19.29%) vs. SK (80.71%) - SK win

EL (45.09%) vs. UoL (54.91%) - UoL win

FNC (93.12%) vs. MYM (6.88%) - FNC win

H2k (70.58%) vs. CPW (29.42%) - H2k win

GMB (86.45%) vs. GIA (13.55%) - GMB win

Week 8, Day 1

GMB (91.73%) vs. MYM (8.27%) - MYM win

ROC (11.92%) vs. FNC (88.08%) - FNC win

CPW (11.92%) vs. UoL (67.96%) - UoL win

EL (37.25%) vs. H2k (62.75%) - EL win

 

 

GIA (14.71%) vs. SK (85.29%) - SK win

Week 8, Day 2

MYM (20.09%) vs. H2k (79.91%) - H2k win

EL (46.20%) vs. GMB (53.80%) - GMB win

The other games this week had no fan vote due to issues with the stream.

 

 

 

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