Shiny Gimmighoul dreams are buried with poor odds in Pokémon Scarlet and Violet raids

There are certain events that Pokémon players just assume will have specific boosts, especially when the advertising for said events directly mentions things like Shiny Pokémon or rare items. Despite that expectation, Shiny Gimmighoul’s debut in Scarlet and Violet isn’t going to be as glorious as some fans would like since the odds of encountering one are not receiving a boost. 

Starting after the June 2023 Nintendo Direct today, which showcased the first actual gameplay for Scarlet and Violet’s upcoming DLC, a special Gimmighoul Tera Raid event went live. It runs until July 2, features Gimmighoul (Chest Form) in one to five-star raids, and is the first time players can encounter a Shiny Gimmighoul in the game. 

Typically, a Pokémon that is featured and advertised with its Shiny form in an event like this will actually have boosted odds to encounter that special color variant. That is not the case, at least initially, with these Gimmighoul Tera Raids, however.

According to data analyst Anubis, Gimmighoul’s Shiny encounter rate in this event is locked at the Tera Raid standard—a one in 4,103.05 chance. These are actually the worst Shiny odds in Scarlet and Violet, sitting at less than the base one in 4,096 Shiny encounter rate for wild encounters and Egg hatches. 

Additionally, only Gimmighoul encountered through five-star Tera Raids can be Shiny, according to this data. 

Related: What are the Shiny odds in Pokémon Scarlet and Violet?

What makes this even worse is that you can’t modify Tera Raid Shiny odds at all. That means even having a Shiny Charm won’t up your chances to find a Shiny Gimmighoul during this event unless the developers make a change at some point before it ends. 

The idea of a change like that isn’t impossible, seeing as a quick fix was pushed just a few hours after the event went live to patch out an item glitch that was impacting a number of players on Scarlet. 

Even if an update to Shiny odds does happen, this is still a very poor showing from The Pokémon Company to advertise Shiny Gimmighoul at the forefront of this event. The announcement may have noted there was a “small chance” to encounter a Shiny, but Gimmighoul being Shiny-locked in the base game automatically makes that Shiny the focal point.