International Elo Ratings 2015/05/24 (LCS Predictions)
International Elo Ratings
A few weeks have passed since my last update and the first week of most major leagues have passed. Now that games are being played more regularly I'll be updating every Sunday.
In China the much-hyped LGD and the promising World Elite look like they're in poor form. Invictus Gaming, who won the off-season, third party, EDG-less IET 2015, have staked a solid claim to being the second best team in China.
Meanwhile in Korea the newly christened KOO (previously GE) Tigers have now lost 4 of their last 5 matches (against SKT twice, KT and, most recently, Najin). They've now lost more BO3's in their last five matches than they lost games in their first 9 weeks in the LCK. That's quite the cinder-slump. Anarchy, one of two newcomers to the LCK, have defied their abysmal performance in the promotion tournament by actually winning a match (against Najin no less).
The NA and EU LCS Summer splits have yet to start. Projections translating their ratings into expected wins are posted below the ratings. Note that Elements are not on either list as they have basically an entirely new team and haven't played any games.
*Expected scores for the EU LCS are out of 16, not 18, because Elements has been excluded.
These predictions don't take into account roster-swaps and other off-season changes; they're based entirely on past-performance. As such they're a useful base line, an informed prior of a sorts. If, for example, you think CLG's recent glass-house stone fight may hurt their performance, then 8 wins would be a decent upper-bound. If, on the other hand, you think that now that they have Pobelter they won't be missing Link then 8 wins would be on the lower end of their expected performance.
That's all for me this week. I'll be updating every Sunday now that games are being played more regularly. I'll also be posting an analysis of competitive League in NA soon based very detailed Elo ratings going back to 2011.