In a clash between two of the most dominant and efficient teams in competitive Dota 2, Team Secret took down Alliance 2-1 and essentially secured a top finish in the upper division of the 2021 Dota Pro Circuit’s European regional league.
Secret and Alliance went into this matchup as the two best teams in EU, with Secret sitting at 4-0 and Alliance only having lost once to Nigma in the opening day. Now, Secret have separated themselves from the pack and locked in an invite to the first DPC Major in March.
The three-game series was fairly quick compared to most of the other week four matches, with only one game lasting longer than 35 minutes.
Secret took game one in just 22 minutes behind Lasse “MATUMBAMAN” Urpalainen’s Troll Warlord, which dealt nearly 14,000 hero damage and went 8/1/7 in the 17-2 stomp. Alliance got back into it with an outstanding Void Spirit performance by Linus “Limmp” Blomdin in game two.
Outside of a small blip at the start of game three, Secret controlled the pace and took the decider to improve to 10-2 overall. Matu went 15/0/7 for 29,000 damage to help shut Alliance down 26-6 and keep things under control.
With that win, datDota developer and analyst Ben “Noxville” Steenhuisen posted some interesting stats, taking into account match outcomes to show which teams are most likely to qualify for the Singapore Major out of EU.
Secret are heavily favored, with the unweighted outcomes giving Clement “Puppey” Ivanov and his team an 87.5-percent shot at locking in the first seed. Overall, Secret is guaranteed a spot at the Major regardless of how they play in the final two weeks, but Alliance and OG are still within striking distance.
If Secret loses out, Alliance or OG could take the top spot. Alliance have a 36.72-percent shot at the second seed, while OG are the most likely to finish in third and get the final Major invite with 31.35 percent odds.
Nigma, Liquid, and Vikin.gg also have higher than 10-percent chances of making it into the Major, though it heavily depends on their play against Alliance and each other to close out the final two weeks. You can view all of the statistics on Noxville’s Twitter.