MTG Arena Win Every Card Challenge was more about luck than skill

Players shouldn't be upset over their results.

Throne of Eldraine
Image via Wizards of the Coast Magic: The Gathering

Over the last 36 hours, thousands of Magic: The Gathering players attempted to win the MTG Arena Challenge with only a small number managing to reach 12 victories.

Wizards of the Coast (WotC) celebrated MTG Arena being officially launched out of open beta this past weekend with the MTGA Win Every Card Challenge (the second half of a two-part event). Players were given full access to every card in Standard with a goal of constructing a deck that could reach 11 to 12 wins to receive large amounts of free cards within the game.

The odds weren’t in the players’ favor, however. Over the last 36 hours, several top MTGA players barely made it to six wins. This prompted a Reddit user to break down the statistics of the event, detailing why players shouldn’t be upset over their results.

MTG Arena Win Every Card Challenge Win/Loss Percentages
Screengrab via Reddit

Based on data from multiple Reddit threads, the odds of making it to 12 wins in the MTGA Win Every Card Challenge were around 5.5 percent. In total, around 90 percent of those competing in the event reached zero to 10 wins, with around 16 percent never achieving a single win. 

The data used is unofficial since the statistics represented in the graph only include MTGA players who recorded their win/loss percentage within the Reddit threads. Until WotC releases actual win/loss data results from the event, the percentages recorded are hypothetical.  

Despite there being possible discrepancies in the numbers, however, the fact remains that an extraordinarily large number of players failed to reach the ultimate rewards. In an event that was supposed to hype up the game for new and existing players, it’s left many feeling like they don’t have the skills to compete in MTG Arena

Related: MPL Sapphire Division ELD split playoff results

But this isn’t true. The MTGA Win Every Card Challenge wasn’t designed for players to win. It was essentially a free-to-play marketing tool. Players who failed to reach several wins have no reason to doubt their playing skills since the odds weren’t in their favor.