25 July 2015 - 12:25
GAMURS

ROCCAT - is winning really a win?

While advacing to playoffs Team ROCCAT secured their spot at Season 5 LCS European Regional Finals (Regionals will conclude 3rd European team going to Worlds - 2 slots go to S5 LCS Summer Playoffs winner team and to the team with the most C...
Dot Esports
preview

While advacing to playoffs Team ROCCAT secured their spot at Season 5 LCS European Regional Finals (Regionals will conclude 3rd European team going to Worlds - 2 slots go to S5 LCS Summer Playoffs winner team and to the team with the most Circuit points). If a team finishes 8th, 9th, or 10th in the LCS Summer Split, all points obtained in the Spring Split will be forefeited (so Gambit, Copenhagen Wolves and SK Gaming lost their points).

Circuit Points before S5 Summer Playoffs:

Fnatic90                                    
Unicorns of Love70
H2k-Gaming50
Origen0
GIANTS Gaming0
Team ROCCAT0

Possible points to get in S5 Summer Playoffs:

2nd place90                           
3rd place70
4th place40
5th/6th place20

Ratio of the playoffs teams in the last 10 games of Summer Regular split:

TeamWinsLoses
Fnatic100
Origen64
Team ROCCAT64
Unicorns of Love55
H2k-Gaming46
GIANTS Gaming46

Team ROCCAT ratio versus possible playoffs opponents:

TeamRatio2nd match
vs Origen2-0WIN
vs H2k-Gaming1-1WIN
vs Unicorns of Love1-1WIN
vs Fnatic0-2LOSE

Team ROCCAT before tiebreaker versus GIANTS had two possibilites:

  1. to win: and play versus Unicorns of Love then Fnatic
  2. to lose: and play versus H2k-Gaming and then Origen

I'm assuming that Fnatic will win Summer Split.. to be honest everyone do so. It seems impossible to take one game out of them and to beat them in playoffs you need 3 while giving up max. 2.

1. How the situation looks like right now?

If H2K-Gaming beats GIANTS and ROCCAT beats Unicorns of Love - ROC will fight versus the loser of Origen/H2k for 40 or 70 points. UoL by qualifying to playoffs and place 5/6 will have 70+20 = 90 points. H2K by winning versus GIANTS also have 90 points. Origen by qualifying to semifinals has at least 40 points and they are in the same situation as ROCCAT.

"In the event that multiple teams are tied in the standings at the conclusion of the Summer Split, then the team that gained the most points in the Summer Split will be considered the holder of the tiebreaker. In the event that two teams are tied at the 5th-6th position for the Summer Split, then Summer Split regular season win loss record will be the first tiebreaker. If both teams are tied in the Summer Split regular season, then head to head will be used to determine the tiebreaker. Summer Split regular season head to head will include any tiebreaker games needed to determine position."

ROCCAT getting more points than GIANTS and less than Origen:

FnaticAuto QualifyAuto Qualify
H2K-Gaming2nd or 3rd50 + 40/70/90, max: 140, min: 90
Origen2nd, 3rd or 4th0 + 70/90, max: 90, min: 70
UoL3rd or 4th70 + 20 = 90
ROCCAT5th0 + 40/70 = max: 70 (only if Origen 90), min: 40
GIANTS6th0 + 20

ROCCAT getting the same amount of points with GIANTS and less than Origen:

FnaticAuto QualifyAuto Qualify
UoL2nd, 3rd70 + 40/70 = max: 140, min: 110
H2K-Gaming2nd, 3rd or 4th50 + 40/70/90 = max: 140, min: 90
Origen3rd or 4th0 + 40/70/90 = max: 90, min: 40
ROCCAT5th0 + 20 = 20
GIANTS6th0 + 20 = 20

ROCCAT getting less points than GIANTS and less than Origen:

FnaticAuto QualifyAuto Qualify
UoL2nd70 + 40/70 = max: 140, min: 110
Origen3rd, 4th or 5th0 + 40/70/90 = max: 90, min: 40
GIANTS3rd, 4th or 5th0 + 40/70/90 = max: 90, min: 40
H2K-Gaming4th or 5th50 + 20 = 70
ROCCAT6th0 + 20 = 20

If ROCCAT gets more than Origen and H2k-Gaming (GIANTS beating both of them) ROCCAT will finish max. 4th. If ROCCAT gets more than Origen and less than H2k-Gaming (H2K beating Origen and ROC beating Origen) ROCCAT will finish max. 4th.

As you can see most of the time ROCCAT will finish 5th or 6th and will play in the gauntlet versus GIANTS Gaming. The best scenario is that they will finish 4th place but it's somehow unlikely.

And then the question appears: Why would you play Origen/H2k-Gaming in 3rd/4th match over semifinals and not giving yourself possibly any chance to jump over H2k-Gaming Bo5 match in Gauntlet? While by losing versus GIANTS you could play possibly in finals and getting even auto-qualify for Worlds. Even if ROCCAT lose versus H2k-Gaming it won't change anything for them because they won't jump in points over UoL (assuming UoL beats GIANTS) and they will be playing GIANTS anyway (the only difference between 5th and 6th is side choose).

But... if ROCCAT beats H2K-Gaming:

  • by winning versus Origen in semifinals ROCCAT has more points than Origen and H2k-Gaming, if GIANTS beats Unicorns of Love ROCCAT goes directly to Worlds!!! (ROCCAT 90, UoL 90, H2K 70, Origen 40/70, GIANTS 40/70 - ROCCAT most in the Summer). In case UoL beats GIANTS then ROCCAT has 3rd seed and needs only 1 win in Gauntlet to qualify for Worlds.
  • by losing versus Origen ROCCAT has to play 3rd place game versus UoL/GIANTS (which is far easier than H2k-Gaming/Origen) - if they play versus GIANTS and win they have secured 3rd seed, if they play versus UoL and win they have secured 4th seed, if they lose the match they have 5th seed (only case they have 6th seed is by losing to GIANTS and 3rd place match).

Worth it? By the mathematical point of view = of course it is.

Next Article