International Elo Ratings 2015/04/23 (Wildcard, LCK and LPL Predictions)
International Elo Ratings
New International Elo Ratings! The same teams are included as were last time. The biggest rating changes occurred after the end of the IWCI Group Stage. The biggest beneficiary is the Bangkok Titans who gained 86 points from their unexpectedly strong showing. DetFm and Kaos Lation Gaming each lost 49 points. The ratings are below, teams are colour-coded by region.
Elo Rankings (2015/04/23)
Some other minor changes were caused by adding some older, previously un-included tournaments. These usually amounted to a change of less than 1 point.
Also, Coast isn't last!
There have been some questions about methodology. A more detailed explanation can be found here.
LPL, LCK and IWCI Predictions
A lot of predictions to be made for the three upcoming competitions. EDG is the heavy favourite to win the LPL Finals; the Elo ratings give almost a 50% chance of a 3-0 sweep and less than a 10% chance of losing the set. This is unsurprising, EDG is the 2nd highest rated Chinese team ever (after the legendary late-2012 era World Elite squad). IG is only a modest favourite over Snake to claim those sweet, sweet Circuit Points. Although only 20 points actually rest on the outcome of this game.
Over in Korea SKT is expected to win 3-0 or 3-1 over CJ. Personally, I think that the match will be closer than this; CJ looked very strong in their sweep of Jin Air. That said the last time SKT lost a game was in Week 8 against KT (a game which featured Easyhoon on Lulu). During that time they 2-0'd both the GE Tigers and CJ.
Both the Wildcard Semifinals are expected to be close with the Elo ratings giving pre-tournament favourite INTZ a small edge over CIS representative Hard Random (INTZ lost to HR on day 2). The other Semifinal between Beskitas and the Bangkok Titans is considered a tossup despite BKT's 5-1 score in the group stage. There is case to be made that the ratings underestimated SEA, and therefore BKT, relative to the other Wildcard Regions, and is still in the process of reassessing.
This table represents the predicted chance of each team winning the tournament as a whole and advancing to the Mid-Season Invitational.
Overall a tossup, but INTZ remains favoured. Personally, I'm not inclined to disagree.