Group C and D Tie Breaker Scenarios
A Chaotic day three turned the Singapore Group Stage on its head as another Korean team dropped a game, while Alliance staked their claim for the knockout round, and the North American representatives momentum came grinding to a hault. When the dust settled, seven of the eigh teams still nursed hopes for the Knockout Stage. Let's take a look at each team's chances for making it out of the group stage.
Samsung Blue (3-1)
With matches left against LMQ and Fnatic (who already beat them once), SSB is by no means a lock to make it out of the group. That said, a win against either team guarantees them, at worst, a tiebreaker match. The possibility still exists for a 4-way tie in the Group if SSB loses both games. However, SSB has brooked no challengers since losing to Fnatic, and it's highly likely that the loss galvanized them into action in a group that's proving even more competitive than was expected. While I wouldn't be surprised if SSB lost another game, I would be if they didn't make it out of the group.
Samsung advances if:
they beat both LMQ and Fnatic
they beat LMQ
they lose to LMQ, and LMQ loses to OMG
A victory against Fnatic would have all but guaranteed LMQ a spot in the Quarterfinals. Instead, they find themselves barely ahead of the pack, with two very difficult games on the horizon. That said, LMQ still controls their own destiny. If LMQ wins either game, they are guaranteed, at worst, a tiebreaker match. LMQ seems to be trending down at a time where the rest of the group is trending up. Their best chance at advancing is by beating OMG again.
LMQ advances if:
they beat OMG, and SSB
they beat OMG, and Fnatic loses to SSB
A heart-breaking loss to OMG in the first game of the day leaves Fnatic having to beat SSB again to have a chance of advancing to the Quarterfinals. While SSB has looked stronger since Friday's loss to Fnatic, their weak early game is still open for exploitation. The 2nd game of the series is normally where the losing team makes the adjustments. It will be up to Fnatic to respond to those adjustments accordingly. Fnatic is going to need to win all three lanes again, as SSB's proficiency in the late game means a single winning lane should be enough for them to plot their comeback.
Fnatic advances if :
they beat SSB, and then win the tiebreaker match against the winner of LMQ vs OMG.
OMG is in a similar situation to Fnatic, needing some help from the other teams in the group in order to punch their ticket to the Quarterfinals. After a disasterous first day, OMG's only loss since then has been to SSB. That said, they came uncomfortably close to losing to Fnatic, and if they had, we'd be talking about another lost year for OMG instead of their chances of making the quarterfinals.
OMG advances if:
they beat LMQ, and LMQ and Fnatic lose to SSB
they beat LMQ, LMQ loses to SSB, Fnatic beats SSB, and they beat Fnatic in the tiebreaker.
Interesting Fact: It's impossible for a 3 way tie to occur, but a 4 way tie happens if LMQ loses to OMG, but beats SSB, and then Fnatic also beats SSB, leaving all 4 teams at 3-3.
Najin White Shield (4-1)
Despite losing their first game of the Group Stage to Alliance on Day 3, NJWS is well positioned to advance to the Quarterfinals. As it stands now, they are guaranteed, at worst, a tie breaker match against either Alliance, Cloud 9 or both. Their last match of the Group Stage is against Cloud 9, a team they've already beaten once, and one that hasn't won a game since they went 2-0 on Thursday.
NJWS advances if:
they beat Cloud 9
they lose to cloud 9, and then get first or 2nd in the ensuring round robin (assuming neither Cloud 9 or Alliance lose to KabuM)
Alliance has come on strong since starting the Group Stage 2-0, becoming the 2nd western team of the tournament to take down a Korean team. However, though the game was statistically perfect (No deaths, or lost towers), Alliance struggled with closing out the game despite a massive gold lead. This has been a trend throughout the entire tournament, and one they are going to have to fix if they hope to advance much farther.
Alliance advances if:
Cloud 9 loses to either NJWS or KaBuM
Cloud 9 beats NJWS, both Cloud 9 and Alliance beat KaBuM, and then Alliance gets 1st or 2nd in the ensuing round robin
Cloud 9 loses to NJWS, but beat KaBuM, they lose to KaBuM, and then they win the ensuing tie breaker match against Cloud 9.
It's been a rough past few days for Cloud 9, who put themselves in great position with a 2-0 first day, only to lose their next 2 games. It's pretty clear that Cloud 9's mechanical ceiling is coming into play, as both Alliance and NJWS are better on their best days than Cloud 9 is. While the same story has rung true for the NA LCS as well, Cloud 9's consistency in the face of the rest of the region's inconsistency has always pulled them through. Not so this time. They're going to need their best,
Cloud 9 advances if:
they beat NJWS, and KaBuM, and Alliance loses to KaBuM
they beat NJWS and KaBuM, Alliance beats KaBuM, and then they get either 1st or 2nd in the ensuing Round Robin
While KaBuM can't advance, they can play the role of spoilers. A Victory against both teams, and a Cloud 9 loss to NJWS knocks Cloud 9 out of the tournament. A victory against Cloud 9, a loss to Alliance, and a Cloud 9 loss to NJWS knocks Cloud 9 out of the tournament. Losing to both teams means the entire group stage revolves around the outcome of NJWS vs Cloud 9.
Interesting Fact: A two way tie for 1st isn't possible, but a 3 way tie is if Alliance and Cloud 9 beat KaBuM and Cloud 9 beats NJWS.