Aug 22 2015 - 8:38 am
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Bleda's Bracket Stage Breakdowns: Who Will Advance to the Semis

Whether you are a gambler looking to win the sticker challenge, or are someone with a genuine interest in the competition, you are in the right place. I have been waiting for months for this major, and this is where the real fun begins.
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altWhether you are a gambler looking to win the sticker challenge, or are someone with a genuine interest in the competition, you are in the right place. I have been waiting for months for this major, and this is where the real fun begins.

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The first match will be between EnVyUs and Na’Vi. This should be the best match of the day, and honestly, it could go either way. The Na’Vi vlogs before the tournament didn’t change my predictions, but after seeing close games and stomps on good maps for them, two of which were against much weaker teams, I have to favor NV for this match. In regards to NV, I think that they are ramping up to be a very good team. They are in the honeymoon phase when it can be said that Na’vi are at the divorce stage (please note that this is hyperbole). Na’vi must ban Cache. Dust 2 is a weak map for Na’Vi and a map where NV has performed, but Na’vi only has one ban. Cobblestone, this tournament has been bad for Na’Vi, winning narrowly against CLG, but NV was able to pull out a nice win against TSM on the map. NV must ban Overpass in part because it is a new map for a new team and Na’Vi is the best on it. NV lost to mouz on Train, and it is a map that neither old Titan nor old EnVyUs played a lot. Mirage has been banned by them a lot, which is strange. Mirage should be a good map for them because NV used to play it, and it has been a staple map for Titan. Maybe, they were banning it to fake out opponents and are hiding it for later in the tournament. If drawn as a random third map, they might really show up a good team like Na’Vi on it. Inferno is better for NV at the moment, but both the French and Na’vi have been good on Inferno. Dust 2 is liked by NV, but is banned with Cache for Na’Vi. NV’s map pick should be Dust 2, while Na’vi’s should be Train or Mirage, Train being the safer of the two. If Cobblestone The match could go either way, but I think NV has just enough to edge it out over this particular opponent..

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Both teams have good aimers, but TSM’s tactics will likely prevail in this matchup. Viewers must also keep in mind that Kinguin can easily upset and is very unpredictable. You never want to clean a loaded gun because it can go off at any time, and TSM definitely needs to be prepared for Kinguin so that they don’t go off. TSM can prepare, but if Kinguin goes off, there is no stopping them. The problem for Kinguin is that their maps are good maps for TSM, and their bad maps are even better played for TSM. If I were in TSM’s position, I would ban Cache, because Kinguin upset many top teams on the map. TSM shouldn’t worry about Cobblestone because Kinguin avoid that map too, and of the two teams, TSM is better. If it even comes to Cobble, Kinguin may not have the tactical knowledge on how to beat them being an entirely skill based team, whereas TSM has the great thinker in Karrigan. Between Overpass and Mirage, Kinguin will have to ban Mirage. Overpass is a good map for TSM, but Overpass’s tightknit layout offers Kinguin a chance to 1v1 TSM players. TSM should not pick Dust 2 even though Kinguin played it yesterday because Kinguin is a good team on it, and Dust 2 favors the Kinguin playstyle. Kinguin will have to do the best that they can with what little they have got. TSM, instead, should pick Inferno because they play it well. Due to Kinguin’s good CT sides and good work with a stand-in earlier this week, they could do well on Train. This is just a bad matchup for Kinguin, and all that they can hope to do here is to learn from their opponent for next time and graciously take the spot for Katowice.

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Speaking of Katowice, NiP v.s. VP was the final in 2014, and VP should have a better chance this time. NiP really has nothing that they can do. They do not have good strats, and the aim has fallen off for them. Virtus Pro has a deep map pool that they are very good on, and then we have NiP who has a deep map pool with no good maps. Virtus Pro will ban Dust 2 like they have been doing all of the time lately. NiP plays it a lot and pretty well, so VP can’t count on them to ban it. When it comes to NiP on the new maps, they flop. Because of this, we can count on them banning out one of the best Overpass teams, and performing badly on Train if it is the random map pick. NiP will being leaving up Cobblestone because they will sometimes play the map, even though VP is good on it. VP’s map choice is not easy to narrow down because they have such a variety of maps, any of which they can plow on. The only map VP will not pick is Cache because NiP will pick it because it was a good map for them a few months ago and is a better map for them now. VP also is good enough to beat NiP on Cache, but they do not want to give NiP a free pick. Virtus Pro will probably want to pick Train because they have played well on it, and NiP sticks to the old maps that they have a lot of experience on. NiP cannot possibly win the series. There is a small chance for NiP Magic, but I would bet on the Virtus Plow going through all of that fairy dust. This is a great chance to win skins from delusional NiP fans.

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The last match of the day will be a clear cut Fnatic win. Fnatic is good on all maps and is the best team in the world, and Luminosity is, by no stretch of the imagination, not a Fnatic. Despite LG’s awesome performance against Kinguin in the previous stage of this tournament, Fnatic should not ban Overpass despite it not a great map for them (a bad map for Fnatic means that you go into 16-14 versus the best NA team at it’s peak), and LG would want to play Fnatic on it. Mirage is a very good map for LG, and Fnatic is not too interested in the map anymore. Mirage should go to ban Mirage. In response to the Mirage ban, LG will pick either Overpass or Train. Considering the ex-Keyd member’s performance on Train against Fnatic at ESL-ESEA Pro League, where they brought it to overtime after a T-side start, they are going to pick Train. LG has been avoiding Inferno, and Fnatic wrecked Na’vi, a capable team on the map. Inferno is the must ban for Luminosity. LG will pick Train, and Fnatic will pick Cache. Thorin said that Fnatic should pick Dust 2, but Dust 2 is known to be an unpredictable and aim based map. Fnatic does have some of the most skilled players in the world, but they shouldn’t be taking such a risk when maps like Cache are up, a good map for Fnatic and a bad one for LG. After all, Fnatic almost lost to a team whose in-game leader can barely hold a gun. Cobblestone was a close map in overtime for LG against EnVyUs, but they didn’t win. It becomes even more difficult for LG against Fnatic because Fnatic is an even better team than NV.

I hope that these predictions will give you insight, may it be for betting or for just pure knowledge about the game. Sorry that it was so dense and difficult to read, so for those of you who found it hard to read, here is is the tldr. The colors are for who chose to pick or ban the map.

 

NV v.s. Na’Vi

Bans: Overpass and Cache

Picks: Dust 2 and Train

Random Map pool: Inferno, Mirage, and Cobblestone

 

TSM v.s. Kinguin

Bans: Cache and Mirage

Picks: Train and Inferno

Random Map pool: Overpass, Dust 2, and Cobblestone

 

VP v.s NiP

Bans: Dust 2 and Overpass

Picks: Train and Cache

Random Map pool: Inferno, Mirage, and Cobblestone

 

FNC v.s. LG

Bans: Mirage and Inferno

Picks: Cache and Train

Random Map pool: Overpass, Dust 2, and Cobblestone

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